Peculiarities of Ukrainian citizens ’ migration to Poland and Russia in 2014 – 2019

For the last five years, Ukrainians have been leaving their own state en masse. Some are looking for better living conditions, the opportunity to earn more money, get an education, and others are forced to save their own lives from the hostilities in the east. Objective coverage of migration processes is hindered by the lack of reliable statistical information, especially in the case of official Ukrainian statistics, which try to lower the migration rates of Ukrainians. In the article, the author attempts to analyze the social and economic causes of mass migration of Ukrainians to Poland and Russia. These are the countries which receive the largest number of Ukrainians. The state actually creates living conditions that lead to the partial physical destruction of Ukrainians, and people are forced to search for a better life outside Ukraine. Ukraine is in a situation of a civil turmoil which is reflected in multidirectional forced migration. In turn, Poland and Russia are receiving an immigration flow that corresponds to the logic of their demographic development, does not require significant costs to integrate migrants, and is an almost ideal demographic resource in terms of ethnic and professional characteristics. Due to migration, Ukraine is losing the most capable and highly qualified part of the population, which threatens its internal and external security, and even the existence of Ukraine as a state.


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2019, the International Monetary Fund published a report Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe. It claims that by 2050 the largest reduction in the workforce in Eastern Europe (of more than 34%)will occur in Ukraine. The same trends may occur in Bulgaria, Latvia, and Poland (Batog, Crivelli, 2019, p. 16).
It is a fact that Ukraine is rapidly losing its human capital, not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively. Today, the mobility of Ukraine's human capital reflects the dilemma of a country whose population chooses between 'the East' and 'the West' (Гулина, Позняк, 2018, pp. 563-564).

The reasons for the migration of Ukrainian citizens in 2014-2019
Economic recession. In 2014, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country decreased by 28 percent; in 2015 it halved compared to 2013. According to official data, the total inflation in 2014-2018 was 104.1 percent. Hundreds of enterprises were closed, and the volume of industrial production in 2019 amounted to only 71 percent of that in 2013. Domestic turnover (in $) in Ukraine in 2018 decreased by 3.2 times compared to 2013 (Статистика, 2019). The income of over half of the population (58.7%) is below the average level (i.e., under $342 per month) today. The income of 30.5 percent of Ukrainians is lower than the real living wage of $119. 2.1% of people in Ukraine live on incomes below the legally established living wage (under $63). The national currency has been depreciated four times over five years. The country has a high unemployment rate: officially up to 10 percent on average over the past five years (Рівень, 2019), but the hidden unemployment rate is not reflected in official data and can be anywhere from 10-30 percent.
Social reasons. Military operations in eastern Ukraine are forcing the population to seek a safe place to live. The reason for the migration of the military-age male population is the forced evasion of participation in hostilities. People leave due to noncompliance with the norms of democracy in Ukraine and violation of the constitutional rights of citizens. These are restrictions on freedom of speech, restrictions on the use of the language of national minorities, non-acceptance of the 2013-2014 events (the killing of people during the Euromaidan in February 2014, burning of people in Odessa on May 2, 2014), persecution for one's beliefs and more. Criticism of the current regime leads to criminal prosecution of journalists and the media, TV channels have their licenses removed. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) issued a report in February-May 2018 documenting 22 cases of discrimination, hate speech and/or violence targeting persons belonging to minority groups or holding alternative, minority, social or political opinions. All of these cases occurred within the reporting period, and in 21 cases, perpetrators of the acts of violence were members of extreme right-wing groups who appeared to act with impunity. The failure of the police and prosecutors to prevent the acts of violence, to properly classify the acts as hate crimes, and to effectively investigate and prosecute the commission of discriminatory crimes violates the right to non-discrimination in the equal protection of the law and leads to an environment of impunity and lack of justice for victims (Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine…, 2018).

Aren't you afraid thet next time this will be acid? -Member of extreme right-wing group to civic activist doused with paint.
Source: Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine…, 2018, p. 21. In May-August, 2018 the OHCHR documented an increase in the number of physical attacks against media professionals and other chilling incidents impeding the exercise of their legitimate professional activities. The OHCHR documented 30 cases that occurred in this reporting period, involving violations of freedom of expression and freedom of the media that ranged from violent physical attacks (including one fatal attack) against media professionals and civic activists, to acts of humiliation or intimidation (Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine…, 2018).
Researchers into the migration of Ukrainian citizens to other countries use the term 'push' to characterize the causes of mass migration (Гулина, Позняк, 2018; Молодикова, Юдина, 2016; Пояснювальна, 2018). Gulina and Pozniak believe that "[t]he crisis of public administration, corruption, a decline in the standard of living of the population and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine are factors that determine the migration dynamics of the country. Modern political, economic and social events are pushing Ukrainians out of their home country and they are rushing to work, study or for other reasons abroad" (Гулина, Позняк, 2018, p. 561).

Labor migration of Ukrainians to Poland and Russia
A peculiarity of the migration processes is the lack of reliable and objective statistics on the volume of labor emigration in Ukraine. We will try to analyze them. According to the State Statistics Service, as of January 1, 2017, there were approximately 26 million working-age people in Ukraine aged 16-59. Among them, 17.2 million people were economically active. 16.1 million people, or 90.4 percent, were engaged in economic activity, and the remaining 1.7 million, according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO), were classified as unemployed. The remaining over 8 million working-age Ukrainians were either employed in the non-observed economy sector or worked in neighboring countries.
According to the official data of the State Statistics Service, from 2015 to the first half of 2017 the number of Ukrainian labor migrants amounted to only 1,303,300 people (Зовнішня, 2017, p. 4). Of course, this data does not appear to be adequate and is not commonly used by experts. Experts estimate that 4.5 to 10 million Ukrainian citizens are working abroad today. In July 2018, the Ministry of Social Policy stated that 3.2 million Ukrainians are working on a permanent basis abroad, and during seasonal work the volume of labor emigration reaches the level of 9 million (Постійно, 2018). Thus, the share of migrant workers abroad is truly shocking and ranges from 18.0 to 56.5 percent of the working-age population of Ukraine.
The search for work and better remuneration is the dominant reason for migration. The hostilities in eastern Ukraine and the declared mobilization of males have intensi-PP 4 '19 fied the tendency for the male population to emigrate from Ukraine. Labor migration from Ukraine has a male face. Men who have secondary or higher education are mostly looking for work; 40 percent of them are between 30 and 44 years old. Until 2014, 67 percent of women and 33 percent of men went to Poland for work; after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict -42 percent and 58 percent respectively (Chmielewska, Dobroczek, 2017). In 2012, migration from Ukraine to Poland accounted for 14.3 percent of the total number of labor migrants, while at the same time 43.2 percent of migrants went to the Russian Federation (Report on the Methodology, 2013, p. 36). In 2017, 38.9 percent of Ukrainian labor migrants worked in Poland, and 26 percent of Ukrainians left for Russia (Зовнішня, 2017, p. 5).
It is difficult to accurately calculate the number of Ukrainian citizens working in Poland, as they are not registered there. We can only compare data from different sources.  It should be noted that Poland lacks a consistent migration policy and management system for labor migration. Although Article 90 of the Law on Promotion of Employment and Labor Market Institutions refers to the "migration policy goals" that the Minister of Labor should follow (Ustawa z dnia 26 maja, 2017), no solutions have been developed that can keep foreign workers in the state for more than a few months. There is also no in-depth analysis of the impact of labor immigration on the Polish labor market. In addition, government officials have not organized a discussion on the topic, despite the fact that this is an important issue. The number of foreigners working in Poland is growing. This applies both to legal and illegal employment. Recently, the legal changes proposed in the employment of foreigners are ad hoc 1 actions. Admittedly, they are moving towards the liberalization of access to the labor market, but nevertheless they are not the result of a considered migration policy .
It is difficult to accurately calculate the number of labor migrants in Russia because, until November 2015, a preferential stay regime applied to Ukrainian citizens, which excluded them from migration regulation. Since November 1, 2015, Ukrainian citizens who are not affected by hostilities can stay in Russia for no more than 90 days within a period of six months without permits. This has significantly reduced the number of labor migrants, although labor migration from Ukraine to Russia remains significant in scale. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the largest number of Ukrainians officially working in Russia in 2014 was 803,800 people. This figure gradually decreased to 227,700 in 2018. Also, the remuneration of Ukrainian migrants is higher in Poland than in Russia. Ukrainians from Poland transfer more funds to Ukraine. According to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, in 2017, $3.1 billion was transferred from Poland, and $1.5 billion from Russia. Ukraine is the largest recipient of money transfers in the region. The country received over $14 billion in 2018, that is 19 percent more than in 2017 (according to the World Bank). This is 11.4 percent of the country's GDP.
According to the latest analytical data, Ukrainian labor migrants have a positive impact on the Polish economy. The contribution of immigrants, including Ukrainians, to Poland's GDP growth has averaged 0.5 percent per year over the past five years. This is an estimate by economists from the Citi Handlowy Bank. In 2017, the Polish economy was able to gain the most thanks to workers from abroad -almost 1 percent growth. According to estimates by the National Bank of Poland, Ukrainian personnel provide 0.3-0.9 percent of GDP growth (Іноземні, 2019).

Education of Ukrainians in Poland and Russia
In 2014-2015, 59,648 Ukrainians went to other countries to get an education; in the 2016/2017 academic year, there were already 77,424 of them. Given that about 900,000 Ukrainians were studying full-time in Ukrainian higher education institutions (universities, academies and institutes of all forms of ownership) at that time, about 8 percent of students were studying abroad (Стадний, 2017). Nowadays, Poland is simplifying the processes by which foreigners, including Ukrainians, can get an education. It is sufficient for an applicant to submit a high school diploma, to attend an interview and to have a certificate of knowledge of the language in which the teaching will take place. Foreigners have to pay tuition fees. External Independent Evaluation is not necessary. Applicants with the Polish Card (Karta Polaka) can apply for free education as Polish citizens. As a result, the number of Ukrainian students in Poland is increasing every year. In 2014, there were nearly 15,000 students, and in 2018 -38,000. In the 2016/2017 academic year, students from Ukraine accounted for 54 percent of the total number of all foreigners studying at Polish higher education institutions (Gomółka, 2016, p. 102).
For the past three years, Ukraine has consistently ranked third (after Kazakhstan and Belarus) in the Russian ranking of countries whose citizens are interested in getting educated in Russia. In 2014-2015, 15,978 Ukrainian citizens were studying in Russian educational institutions and this figure stayed almost the same in 2018. The initiatives of Russian universities and targeted activities by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation have contributed to this interest of Ukrainians in Russian education. Since 2014, the provision of educational services to the citizens of eastern Ukraine has been a state task for Russia. Therefore, the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation has drawn up a list of 17 Russian universities and 176 colleges with an annual quota of 2,500 places offered free of charge to entrants from eastern Ukraine (till 2014, the quota for Ukraine was about 300 persons). In addition, the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 74 dated February 18, 2017 simplified the procedure for submitting documents to Russian universities and the procedure for recognizing documents received on education and professional qualifications for citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons permanently residing in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine (Гулина, Позняк, 2018, p. 567).
According to statistics, only 5 percent of Ukrainians who graduated abroad return home. In 2014-2016 alone, about 80,000 young Ukrainians stayed in Poland to work after graduating from Polish universities. Applicants are free to use Ukrainian secondary school certificates to enter Polish universities. Ukrainians also can defend doctoral dissertations and work as lecturers.

Special programs for migrants
Over the past ten years, the migration flows from Ukraine to Poland have contributed to the replacement of human capital and labor potential of the latter. Poland uses various mechanisms and programs that encourage Ukrainian long-term and short-term migration to Poland. One of the most successful long-term programs for attracting Ukrainians to permanent residency is the Polish Card (Karta Polaka) repatriation program. This is one of the migration programs aimed at citizens of the countries of the former Soviet Union, mainly Ukraine and Belarus. A Polish Card is issued to a person with Polish ancestry for up to ten years, with the subsequent possibility of extending the card. The Polish Card guarantees its holder the right to work, establish a business, study, use benefits and allowances in Poland. In addition, Ukrainians of Polish descent who are cardholders and have decided to emigrate to Poland are guaranteed the payment of special allowances, financial assistance for rented housing, and free Polish language courses. The amount of this special allowance is regulated by the Law on the Polish Card and amounts to 50 percent of the minimum wage in Poland (Ustawa o Karcie Polaka, 2017).
The Russian resettlement program for compatriots is also an effective mechanism for attracting Ukrainian migrants. The program assists Ukrainian citizens in obtaining a temporary residency permit, acquiring permanent residency, a patent for employment and acquiring

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Russian citizenship in a simplified manner. In 2016, more than 50 percent of all program participants were Ukrainian citizens, and 95.3 percent of those who applied for participation in the program had already been on the territory of the Russian Federation. Such interest in participating in the resettlement program is due to the amendments to the Russian law No. 129-ФЗ "On the legal status of foreign citizens" in May 2016. This law simplified the procedure for obtaining a residency permit by foreign citizens and members of their families who arrived in the Russian Federation on an emergency basis, refugees or people granted temporary asylum, including Ukrainian citizens and participants in the State program to facilitate voluntary resettlement to Russia. Not surprisingly, Ukrainian citizens have also become leaders in acquiring Russian citizenship. In 2016, 100,696 Ukrainians became new citizens of Russia, which is 49 percent more than in 2015 (Гулина, Позняк, 2018, p. 568).
On April 24, 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on a simplified procedure for obtaining Russian citizenship for the residents from the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. According to the decree, such a right is granted to persons permanently residing in the ORDLO (detached areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions). As stated in the decree, such a decision was made by the President of the Russian Federation "in order to protect the rights and freedoms, on the basis of 'generally recognized principles and norms of international law', in accordance with Article 29 of the Federal Law No. 62 as of May 31, 2002 'On citizenship of the Russian Federation'." It is reported that the consideration of applications for citizenship from the residents of the occupied Donbass "is carried out within a period not exceeding three months" from the date of application. The first group of 64 residents of the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions received Russian passports under the simplified program in the Rostov region on June 14, 2019.

Forced migration of Ukrainian citizens (refugees)
Since April 2014, in connection with the armed conflict, Ukraine has faced the problem of mass forced migration of citizens from its south-eastern regions. Since then, over 2,500 civilians have been injured and nine thousand have died; 3.4 million people need humanitarian assistance as a result of food shortages, disrupted infrastructure and the risks of ongoing fighting. According to the UN, more than 1.3 million people became refugees, most of whom asked for asylum in Russia and Belarus (Кузнецова, 2018, p. 578). There are about 1.5 million internally displaced persons on the territory of Ukraine. They are citizens of Ukraine, but are deprived of the right to vote, 2 which indicates a violation of Art. 38 of the Constitution of Ukraine.
Humanitarian migration from Ukraine to Western countries is a non-dominant trend, because Ukrainian citizens are more likely to travel to European countries in search of work and/or education. Eurostat data shows that the number of asylum applications submitted by Ukrainian citizens is insignificant and has a steady downward trend. The peak of humanitarian applications from Ukrainian citizens in EU countries was in 2014-2015: 2 Internally displaced persons are substantially restricted in their right to vote. They can only elect the president and only half of the parliament that is elected to the Verkhovna Rada on party lists. They cannot vote for the majoritarian candidate and at the local level (for the mayor, city council deputies or village head).
in 2014, 14,060 people applied for asylum in EU countries, in 2015EU countries, in -22,040 (compared to 1,055 in 2013. Most of the requests were rejected. Immigration services of EU countries justify the high percentage of refusals to applicants from Ukraine because of "internal alternatives to asylum" on the territory of their country. The fact that most EU countries have included Ukraine in the list of safe countries of origin for migrants (Articles 29-31 of Directive 2005/85/EC on Asylum Procedures) has also led to the decrease in the flow of applications. In the period from 2016 to 2018, 19,948 applications from Ukrainian citizens were registered in EU countries, but their success rate was between 4 and 9 percent (Гулина, Позняк, 2018, p. 566). By comparison, the same index for Syrian citizens was 94 percent. During 2014 and 2016, 5,269 Ukrainians applied for asylum in Poland, of which only 280 were approved.
Most of the forced migrants from Ukraine go to Russia, where it is easier to obtain refugee status. In 2014-2015, 12 times more asylum seekers applied to the Russian Federation than in the EU -409,243 applications. The Russian Federation approves nearly all applications made by Ukrainians. People who left the zone of hostilities in Ukraine most often received the status of "persons granted temporary asylum" in Russia. Thus, in 2014, this status was granted to 234,000 people, in 2016 -311,134, in 2017-226,044, and in 2018 -123,434. A total of 854 Ukrainians received refugee status from 2014 to 2017 (Россия, 2018, p. 84).
In August 2014, 1,002 temporary accommodation units were opened in Russia, giving shelter to more than 55,000 Ukrainian citizens. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, there were about 1.3 million displaced persons from Ukraine in January 2016. However, there were only 21,000 people in 369 temporary accommodation units, and the rest settled on their own, or with the support of local authorities, relatives and friends (Молодикова, Юдина, 2016, p. 103).

Conclusions
In 2014-2019, Poland and Russia have been priority destinations for the migration of Ukrainians. Ukrainians go to Poland mainly to work and study. In Russia, a large part of Ukrainians are internally displaced persons (IDPs). The overall picture of the number of migrants is as follows.
Ukraine is in a situation of civil turmoil which is reflected in multidirectional forced migration. In turn, Poland and Russia are receiving an immigration stream that corresponds to the logic of their demographic development, does not require significant costs to integrate migrants, and is an almost ideal demographic resource in terms of ethnic and professional characteristics. Ukraine is losing the most capable and highly qualified part of the population, which threatens its internal and external security, and even the existence of Ukraine as a state.