Keywords
Crime Severity Index
education
employment
Moran’s I
Spatial Panel Autoregressive Model
Spatial Panel Error Model
West Bengal
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Abstract
Does human capital formation forestall crimes over space and time? The aim of this study is to examine this question by analysing the spatial impact of education and employment on criminal offences across the districts of West Bengal. This study proposes a Crime Severity Index by incorporating both the legal seriousness and the frequency of occurrence of different crimes. The index provides a single composite measure that complements the usual crime rate indicator to better understand regional crime profiles. The severity of crime is measured by assigning weights based on the years of imprisonment and the likelihood that the respective crimes will occur. To identify the determinants of crime over space and time, this study employs a pseudo-panel structure comprising 19 cross-sections across 5 time points, spanning 2000 to 2020, applying spatial regression models. A high and positive Moran’s I score suggests that crime rates and the crime severity are closely linked across different regions within the state. Further analysis of the regression results shows that factors such as higher education among women, stable employment opportunities, and the number of police stations have a substantial impact on forestalling regional crime and reducing its severity.
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