PACIFIC SEA LEVELS RISING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT ACCELERATING
PDF

Keywords

sea level rise
tide gauges
subsidence
Pacific Ocean

How to Cite

Parker, A., & Ollier, C. (2019). PACIFIC SEA LEVELS RISING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT ACCELERATING. Quaestiones Geographicae, 38(1), 179–184. https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2019-0007

Abstract

Over the past decades, detailed surveys of the Pacific Ocean atoll islands show no sign of drowning because of accelerated sea-level rise. Data reveal that no atoll lost land area, 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, and only 11.4% of islands contracted. The Pacific Atolls are not being inundated because the sea level is rising much less than was thought. The average relative rate of rise and acceleration of the 29 long-term-trend (LTT) tide gauges of Japan, Oceania and West Coast of North America, are both negative, −0.02139 mm yr−1 and −0.00007 mm yr−2 respectively. Since the start of the 1900s, the sea levels of the Pacific Ocean have been remarkably stable.

https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2019-0007
PDF

References

Beenstock M., Felsenstein D., Frank E., Reingewertz Y., 2015. Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise. Environmental and ecological statistics 22(1): 179–206.

Beenstock M., Reingewertz Y., Paldor N., 2012. Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming. Earth System Dynamics 3(2): 173–188.

BoM [Bureau of Meteorology], 2009. Australian Mean Sea Level Survey 2009. Online: www.conscious.com.au/docs/ new/128.21_AustMSLsurvey2009(2).pdf (accessed December 7, 2018).

BoM [Bureau of Meteorology], 2019. Monthly sea levels for TUVALU. Online: www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70056/ IDO70056SLI.shtml (accessed January 16, 2019).

Boretti A., 2012a. Short Term Comparison of Climate Model Predictions and Satellite Altimeter Measurements of Sea Levels. Coastal Engineering 60: 319–322.

Boretti A., 2012b. Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels? Coastal Engineering 64: 161–167.

Boretti A., Watson T., 2012. The inconvenient truth: Ocean Levels are not accelerating in Australia. Energy and Environment 23(5): 801–817.

Chambers D.P., Merrifield M.A., Nerem R.S., 2012. Is there a 60 year oscillation in global mean sea level?. Geophysical Research Letters 39(18).

Daly J.L., 2002. Tuvalu Stung. Online: www.john-daly.com/ press/press−02a.htm (accessed December 7, 2018).

Dean R.G., Houston J.R., 2013. Recent sea level trends and accelerations: comparison of tide gauge and satellite results. Coastal Engineering 75: 4–9.

Douglas B., 1992. Global Sea Level Acceleration. Journal of Geophysical Research 97(8): 12, 699–12, 706.

Douglas B., Peltier W. R., 2002. The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise. Physics Today 55(3): 35–40.

Duvat V.K.E. (2018). A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 10: e557.

GIAJ [Geospatial Information Authority of Japan], 2018. Tidal level data recorded: Hosojima Tide Station. Online: http:// www.gsi.go.jp/kanshi/tide_data_02_e.html (accessed December 7, 2018).

Holgate S.J., 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L01602.

Houston J.R., Dean R.G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research 27: 409–417.

Jevrejeva S., Grinsted A., Moore J.C., Holgate S.J., 2006. Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 111(C9).

Jevrejeva S., Moore J.C., Grinsted A., Woodworth P., 2008. Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? Geophysical Research Letters 35: L08715.

JMA [Japan Meteorological Agency], 2018. Sea level (around Japan). Online: www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/sl_trend/sea_level_around_japan.html (accessed December 7, 2018).

JPL [Jet Propulsion Laboratory], 2018. GPS Time Series – TUVA. Online: sideshow.jpl.nasa.gov/post/series.html (accessed December 7, 2018).

Mörner N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planetary Change 40: 49–54.

Mörner N.-A., 2007, Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis. Environmental Stress and Migration over the Seas. Internationales Asienforum 38: 353–374.

Mörner N.-A., 2010a. Sea level changes in Bangladesh new observational facts. Energy and Environment 21(3): 235– 249.

Mörner N.-A., 2010b. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time. Quaternary International 221(1–2): 3–8.

Mörner N.-A., 2010c. There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! 21st Century Science and Technology Fall 2010: 7–17.

Mörner N.-A., 2011a. Setting the frames of expected future sea level changes by exploring past geological sea level records. In: D. Easterbrook (ed.), Evidence-Based Climate Science, Elsevier, Chapter 6.

Mörner N.-A., 2011b. The Maldives: A measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics. In: D. Easterbrook (ed.), Evidence-Based Climate Science, Elsevier, Chapter 7.

Mörner N.-A., 2013. Sea level changes past records and future expectations. Energy and Environment 24(3–4): 509–536.

Mörner N.-A., 2016. Rates of Sea Level Changes – A Clarifying Note. International Journal of Geosciences 7(11): 1318– 1322.

NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration], 2018. Sea Level Trends. Online: tidesandcurrents. noaa.gov/sltrends (accessed December 7, 2018).

Okunaka Y., Hirahara T., 2016. Long-term trend of sea level on coast of Japan – Recent research review and correction using ground variation by GPS observation. Sokko-Jiho (Journal of Meteorological Agency) 83: 21–31.

Parker A., 2013a. Natural oscillations and trends in longterm tide gauge records from the Pacific. Pattern Recognition in Physics 1: 1–13.

Parker A., 2013b. Sea level trends at locations of the United States with more than 100 years of recording. Natural Hazards 65(1): 1011–1021.

Parker A., 2013c. Oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras. Natural Hazards 65(1): 991–997.

Parker A., 2013d. Lower Bounds to Future Sea-Level Rise. International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems 4(3): 197–211.

Parker A., 2014a. Apparent hot and cold spots of acceleration along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States. Nonlinear Engineering 3(1): 51–56.

Parker A., 2014b. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal planning in Norway. Ocean Engineering 78: 124–130.

Parker A., 2016a. Rates of subsidence and relative sea level rise in the Hawaii Islands. Nonlinear Engineering 5(4): 255–268.

Parker A., 2016b. Coldspot of Decelerated Sea-Level Rise on the Pacific Coast of North America. Quaestiones Geographicae 35(3): 31–37.

Parker A., 2016c. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is stable under global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(20): 2760–2761.

Parker A., 2016d. Analysis of the sea levels in Kiribati a rising sea of misrepresentation sinks Kiribati. Nonlinear Engineering 5(1): 37–43.

Parker A., 2016e. The actual measurements at the tide gauges do not support strongly accelerating twentieth-century sea-level rise reconstructions. Nonlinear Engineering 5(1): 45–71.

Parker A., 2018a. Geodetic Observation crucial to Sea-Level Monitoring. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 11: 239.

Parker A., 2018b. Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the 20thcentury and consequences for coastal management – Part 2: China pearl river delta region. Ocean and Coastal Management 163: 456–465.

Parker A., 2018c. Relative sea level rise along the coast of China mid-twentieth to end twenty-first centuries. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 11: 262.

Parker A., 2018d. Tuvalu sea level rise, land change, mismanagement and overpopulation. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal 6(1): 107–123.

Parker A., 2018e. Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the 20th century and consequences for coastal management – Part 1: Japan. MS.

Parker A., Ollier C.D., 2015. Coastal planning should be based on proven sea level data. Ocean and Coastal Management 124: 1–9.

Parker A., Ollier C.D., 2017a. California sea level rise: evidence based forecasts vs model predictions. Ocean and Coastal Management 149: 198–209.

Parker A., Ollier C.D., 2017b. Short term tide gauge records from one location are inadequate to infer global sea level accelerations. Earth Systems and Environment 1: 17.

Parker A., Ollier C.D., 2018a. The sea level of Guam. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal 6(2): 235–242.

Parker A., Ollier C.D., 2018b. Sea Level Rise at Wake Island, Marshall Islands, and Midway Atoll, Hawaiian Islands. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal 6(1): 89–97.

Scafetta N., 2014. Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics 43: 175–192.

Schmith T., Johansen S., Thejll P., 2012. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods. Journal of Climate 25(22): 7822–7833.

SONEL [Système d’Observation du Niveau des Eaux Littorales], 2018. GPS position times series. Online: https:// www.sonel.org/spip.php?page=gps&idStation=793 (accessed December 7, 2018).

Watson P.J., 2011. Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia? Journal of Coastal Research 27(2): 368–377.

Wenzel M., Schröter J., 2010. Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans 115: C08013.

Wunsch R., Ponte R., Heimbach P., 2007. Decadal trends in sea level patterns: 1993–2004. Journal of Climatology 20(24): 5889–5911.