POSSIBLE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING MIGRATION IN RUSSIA WITH EMPHASIS ON SIBERIA
PDF

Keywords

climate
migration
population change
Russia
Siberia
global warming

How to Cite

Dets, I. A. (2020). POSSIBLE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING AND OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING MIGRATION IN RUSSIA WITH EMPHASIS ON SIBERIA. Quaestiones Geographicae, 39(3), 111–123. https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2020-0026

Abstract

The main issue of the study was to determine the importance of the climate factor for migration flows in Russia, as well as its impact on the intraregional level. The article also discusses the possible prospects that global warming may bring to Siberia. According to the results, the climate factor does not have a crucial influence on the decision to relocate in Russia, but it remains one of the most important, along with economic, social and political factors. At the regional level, the climate factor is less important than the agglomeration factor and others. The impact of global warming has now affected the overall increase in temperatures in Siberia, which is not yet sufficient to generate additional migration flows.

https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2020-0026
PDF

Funding

This work was supported by the Institute of Geography SB RAS (state assignment’s registration number AAAA-A19-119122490007-4) and Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science (grant number 19-45-240004), namely ‘Predictions of the ecological-economic potential for possible “climatic” migrations in the Angara-Yenisei macroregion in a changing climate of the 21st century’.

References

Bassetti F., 2019. Environmental migrants: up to 1 billion by 2050. Foresight. Online: https://www.climateforesight.eu/migrations-inequalities/environmental-migrants-up-to-1-billion-by-2050/ (accessed 14 May 2020).

Bobrova I., 2020. Despite Putin’s efforts, Tulun has become a ghost town. Moskovsky Komsomolets. Online: mk.ru/social/2020/01/04/nesmotrya-na-usiliya-putina-tulun-stal-gorodomprizrakom.html (accessed 3 April 2020).

Bogdanov V.N., Korytny L.M., Emelyanova N.V., Antipina U.V., 2019. Sotsial’no-ekologicheskiye osobennosti suburbanizatsii v Irkutskoy aglomeratsii (Socio-ecological characteristics of suburbanization in the Irkutsk agglomeration). Ecology of Urban Areas 3: 28–33. DOI 10.24411/1816-1863-2019-13028

Bohra-Mishra P., Oppenheimer M., Cai R., Feng S., Licker R., 2017. Climate variability and migration in the Philippines. Population and Environment 38: 286–308. DOI 10.1007/s11111-016-0263-x

Bradshaw C.J.A., Sodhi N.S., Peh K.S.-H., Brook B.W., 2007. Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Global Change Biology 13: 2379–2395. DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x

Butler C.D., 2018. Climate change, health and existential risks to civilization: A comprehensive review (1989–2013). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15(10): 2266. DOI 10.3390/ijerph15102266

Cameron M.P., 2018. Climate change, internal migration, and the future spatial distribution of population: A case study of New Zealand. Population and Environment 39: 239–260. DOI 10.1007/s11111-017-0289-8

Cattaneo C., Beine M., Fröhlich C.J., Kniveton D., Martinez-Zarzoso I., Mastrorillo M., Millock K., Piguet E., Schraven, B., 2019. Human migration in the era of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 13(2): 189–206. DOI 10.1093/reep/rez008

Cheshire P.C., Magrini S., 2006. Population growth in European cities: Weather matters – but only nationally. Regional Studies 40: 23–37. DOI 10.1080/00343400500449259

Dets I.A., 2018. Proyektnyy podkhod v territorial’nom razvitii: Baykal’skiy region (Project approach in territorial development: Baikal region). Academic publishing house “Geo.”, Novosibirsk. DOI 10.21782/B978-5-6041445-0-3

Didenko N.I., Cherenkov V.I., 2018. Economic and geopolitical aspects of developing the Northern Sea Route. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 180: 012012. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/180/1/012012

Dunlap R.E., 2010. Climate change and rural sociology: Broadening the research agenda. Rural Sociology 75: 17–27. DOI 10.1111/j.1549-0831.2009.00010.x

Environment. Climate change. Average monthly air temperature, 2020. Roshydromet Russia Federal Hydrometeorological Center. Online: gks.ru/folder/11194 (accessed 21 May 2020).

Falco C., Donzelli F., Olper A., 2018. Climate change, agriculture and migration: A survey. Sustainability 10: 1405. DOI 10.3390/su10051405

Fedorov V.P., Zhuravel V.P., Grinyaev S.N., Medvedev, D.A. (2020, January). The northern sea route: Problems and prospects of development of transport route in the Arctic. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 434: 012007. DOI 10.1088/1755-1315/434/1/012007

Gross regional product. Gross regional product per capita, 2020. Rosstat Russian State Statistics Agency. Online: gks.ru/bgd/regl/B12_14p/Main.htm (accessed 15 April 2020).

Hiyama T., Takakura H. (Eds.), 2018. Global warming and human – nature dimension in Northern Eurasia. Global envi-ronmental studies, Springer Singapore, Singapore. DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-4648-3

Hunter L.M., Nawrotzki R., 2016. Migration and the environment. In: White M.J. (ed.), International handbook of migration and population distribution. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht: 465–484. DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-7282-2_21

Indicators of municipalities, 2020. Rosstat Russian State Statistics Agency. Online: gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/bd_munst/munst.htm (accessed 12 April 2020).

Karachurina L.B., Mkrtchyan N.V., 2017. Vozrastnyye osobennosti mezhregional’noy migratsii naseleniya v Rossii (Age specific of interregional migration in Russia). Region: Economics and Sociology 4(96): 101–125. DOI 10.15372/REG20170405

Kichigina N., 2020. Geographical analysis of river flood hazard in Siberia. International Journal of River Basin Management 18(2): 1–10. DOI 10.1080/15715124.2020.1742136

Kolesnik M.A., Koptseva N.P., Libakova N.M., Luzan V.S., Sergeeva N.A., Sertakova E.A., 2016. Economic migration in Central Siberia and ethnic conflict risks (Based on Krasnoyarsk Krai Analysis). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 6: 104–108.

Krasnoshtanova N.E., 2019. New economic development of the North of Irkutsk Region: Socio-ecological consequences. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 381: 012048. DOI 10.1088/1755-1315/381/1/012048

Laruelle M., 2016. New mobilities and social changes in Russia’s Arctic regions. Routledge, London.

Li X., Huang S., Chen J., Chen Q., 2020. Analysis of the driving factors of U.S. domestic population mobility. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 539: 122984 DOI 10.1016/j.physa.2019.122984

Masyagina O.V., Menyailo O.V., 2020. The impact of permafrost on carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in Siberia: A meta-analysis. Environmental Research. 182: 109096. DOI 10.1016/j.envres.2019.109096

McLeman R., Gemenne F. (Eds.), 2018. Routledge handbook of environmental displacement and migration. Routledge, London.

Molloy R., Smith C.L., Wozniak A., 2011. Internal migration in the United States. Journal of Economic Perspectives 25: 173–196. DOI 10.1257/jep.25.3.173

Mueller L., Sheudshen A.K., Syso A., Barsukov P., Smolentseva E.N., Khodzher T., Sychev V.G., Romanenkov V.A., Rukhovich O.V., Puzanov A., Dannowski R., Schindler U., Eulenstein F., 2016. Land and water resources of Siberia, their functioning and ecological state. In: Mueller L., Sheudshen A.K., Eulenstein F. (eds), Novel methods for monitoring and managing land and water resources in Siberia. Springer Water. Springer International Publishing, Cham: 3–73. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24409-9_1

Nemeryuk E., Anikin L., 2014. Teoreticheskiye podkhody k issledovaniyu prichin migratsii (Theoretical approaches to research of migration causes). Izvestiya of Saratov University. New series. Series Sociology. Politology 14: 23–28.

Partridge M.D., 2010. The duelling models: NEG vs amenity migration in explaining US engines of growth. Papers in Regional Science 89: 513–536. DOI 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2010.00315.x

Piguet E., 2010. Linking climate change, environmental degradation and migration: A methodological overview. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1(4): 517–524. DOI 10.1002/wcc.54

Piguet E., 2013. From “primitive migration” to “climate refugees”: The curious fate of the natural environment in migration studies. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103(1): 148–162. DOI 10.1080/00045608.2012.696233

Piguet E., Pécoud A., De Guchteneire P., 2011. Migration and climate change: An overview. Refugee Survey Quarterly 30(3): 1–23. DOI 10.1093/rsq/hdr006

Ponomarev E., Kharuk V., Ranson K., 2016. Wildfires dynamics in Siberian larch forests. Forests 7(6): 125. DOI 10.3390/f7060125

Popod’ko, G.I., 2017. Puti preodoleniya neravenstva sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya otstalykh regionov (na primere Respubliki Tyva) (Ways to overcome the inequalities of socio-economic development of backward regions: Evidence from the Republic of Tyva). Regional Economics: Theory and Practice 15(2): 315–328. DOI 10.24891/re.15.2.315

Poston D.L. Jr., Zhang L., 2008. Ecological analyses of permanent and temporary migration streams in China in the 1990s. Population Research and Policy Review 27: 689–712. DOI 10.1007/s11113-008-9094-5

Poston D.L., Frisbie W.P., 2005. Ecological demography. In: Poston, D.L., Micklin, M. (eds), Handbook of population, handbooks of sociology and social research. Springer US, Boston: 601–623. doi: 10.1007/0-387-23106-4_21

Poston D.L., Zhang L., Gotcher D.J., Gu Y., 2009. The effect of climate on migration: United States, 1995–2000. Social Science Research 38: 743–753. DOI 10.1016/j.ssresearch. 2008.10.003

Prokhorov P.E., Epstein N.D., 2016. Statisticheskiy analiz migratsionnoy situatsii i faktorov, vliyayushchikh na demograficheskuyu ekspansiyu Rossii (Statistical analysis of the migration situation and the factors affecting the Russian demographic expansion). Statistics for Economics 6: 9–18. DOI 10.21686/2500-3925-2016-6-9-18

Rajbhandari I., Partridge M., 2018. State of the art and future challenges of interregional migration empirical research in North America. In: Biagi B., Faggian A., Rajbhandari I., Venhorst V. (eds), New frontiers in interregional migration research. Advances in spatial science (The Regional Science Series). Springer, Cham: 63–86. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-75886-2_4

Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators, 2020. Rosstat Russian State Statistics Agency. Online: gks.ru/folder/210/document/13204 (accessed 10 April 2020).

Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, 2019. Doklad ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii Rossiyskoy Federatsii za 2018 god (Report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2018). Roshydromet, Moscow. Online: meteorf.ru/upload/pdf_download/o-klimate-rf-2018.pdf (accessed 24 May 2020)

Shakhova N., Semiletov I., Chuvilin E., 2019. Understanding the permafrost–hydrate system and associated methane releases in the East Siberian arctic shelf. Geosciences 9: 251. DOI 10.3390/geosciences9060251

Shiklomanov N.I., Streletskiy D.A., Grebenets V.I., Suter L., 2017. Conquering the permafrost: Urban infrastructure development in Norilsk, Russia. Polar Geography 40: 273–290. DOI 10.1080/1088937X.2017.1329237

Soboleva V.N., Melnikov S.M., 1999. Migracionnye processy v Magadanskoj oblasti (Migration processes in Magadan Region). Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. 11: 58–62.

Taskayeva S., 2007. Faktory, opredelyayushchiye migratsiyu naseleniya (The factors determining people migration). Transbaikal State University Journal 3: 174–179.

Tchebakova N.M., Parfenova E.I., Lysanova G.I., Soja A.J., 2011. Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century. Environmental Research Letters. 6: 045207. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207

Tikhomirov N.P., Tikhomirova T.M., 2020. Metody obosnovaniya strategiy preodoleniya demograficheskogo krizisa v regionakh Rossii (Methods of justification for strategies to overcoming demographic crisis in the regions of Russia). Fundamental Research 5: 160–166. DOI 10.17513/fr.42764

Tsoy Y. 2019. O nekotorykh migratsionnykh protsessakh perekhodnogo perioda v Respublike Krym (About some migration processes of the transition period in the Republic of Crimea). Articles of the X All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference “State, Government And Law”, 287–289. Online: iguip.narod.ru/life/Sbornik_konferencii_GVUP_GUU_2019.pdf#page=288 (accessed 27 May 2020)

Ullman E.L., 1954. Amenities as a factor in regional growth. Geographical Review. 44: 119–132. DOI 10.2307/211789

Vasilev A., 2019. Part of the residents of Tulun affected by the flood intends to move to Bratsk. Portal Gorod Online: tkgorod.ru/news/18704 (accessed 19 April 2020).

Weather forecasts and observational data, 2020. Raspisaniye Pogodi Ltd. Online: rp5.ru/docs/about/en (accessed 27 April 2020).

Zamyatina N., 2017. Migration destination choice as a criterion of self-identification. Sibirica 16(3): 57–76. DOI 10.3167/sib.2017.160304