The potential of landscape metrics for estimating forest fire risk in Poland
Journal cover Quaestiones Geographicae, volume 45, no. 1, year 2026
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Keywords

forest fires
landscape metrics
fire risk
forest management

How to Cite

Kolanek, A., Szymanowski, M., & Niedzielski, T. (2026). The potential of landscape metrics for estimating forest fire risk in Poland. Quaestiones Geographicae, 45(1), 155–170. https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2026-0010

Abstract

Although forest fires are widely studied, few studies focus on the relationship between forest landscape structure and fire events. This paper examines the significance of differences in landscape metrics between buffer zones surrounding fires and buffer zones surrounding randomly selected points. The objective of this comparison was to determine whether landscape characteristics are factors that may contribute to the occurrence of fires. The analysis was based on fires in 2015 in the Lubelskie Voivodeship, eastern Poland. Statistical evaluation involved the Ljung–Box test and the Mann–Whitney U test. The results indicate that areas surrounding the places of fire occurrences exhibit greater fragmentation compared with the control groups, as reflected by smaller, more numerous and more irregularly shaped forest patches. While landscape-level analysis provides a broad overview, the class-level analysis helps to pinpoint which forest types and developmental stages are susceptible to these effects. These findings underscore the potential significance of forest structure in shaping fire risk in Poland.

https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2026-0010
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Funding

This research was funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, Grant No. 2019/35/N/ ST10/00279.

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