Keywords
regional economic divergence
post-communist transition
human capital
Poland
Romania
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Abstract
The study examines the relationship between higher education expansion and economic development in Poland and Romania between 2000 and 2023. It takes into consideration both national and regional contexts, based on the study case of less and more developed regions. Higher education is often presented as one of the most reliable factors associated with regional convergence and social mobility. Nevertheless, evidence from post-socialist contexts leads to the suggestion that economic effects could be uneven. Our purpose is to assess whether tertiary education has functioned rather as a spatial equaliser (convergence) or coincided with the reinforcement of existing regional disparities (divergence).
As an exploratory study, the analysis highlights patterns and associations rather than establishing causal relationships. It draws on national and regional level data on higher education attainment, GDP per capita, sectoral employment structure or early leaving from education and training. The methodology provides a statistical approach with correlations, regression and cross-regional combined comparisons. These bivariate analyses do not account for additional variables, and the results should be interpreted cautiously given the small sample size.
Findings indicate that higher education attainment has not been significantly linked to regional convergence. Despite the robust relationship between higher education attainment and GDP per capita, the relationship was fluid and subject to substantial time and regional variation. Tertiary education coincided with widening income gaps, increasing dispersion in education attainment and growing advantages for regions that had pre-existing capacities. Less developed regions showed weaker associations between higher education expansion and economic upgrading.
Further highlights underline the role of demographic dynamics, labour market structures and early leaving from education and training in shaping development regional trajectories. All factors combined favour the extent to which cumulative causation prevails over homogenous “catch-up”. The paper contributes to debates on human capital and regional development, underlining that higher education acts less as an equalising force and more as a factor co-evolving with existing regional inequalities, based on examples in Central and Eastern Europe. Findings should be interpreted in light of the study’s bivariate design, limited causal identification, and constraints related to regional data consistency.
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