Demographic Development and Malthusian Problem in the Polish Territories under German Rule, 1807-1914

Abstract

The Malthusian population theory and its applicability to European demographic history have been subjects of prolonged debate. The long-run demographic development of the Polish territories under Prussian and German rule provides a valuable case study for testing the Malthusian model, yet a comprehensive regional analysis covering 1807-1914 across Silesia, Great Poland, and Pomerania has not been undertaken.

This article analyzes population development in the area between the Nysa, Odra, Lower Wisła, and Lower Niemen in 1807-1914, examining natural movement of population, migrational movements, population density, and age and sex distribution. It confronts the Malthusian model with actual demographic development, focusing on the relation between food resources and population, the socio-economic factors that checked or stimulated growth, and the demographic influence on the economy.

The study draws on statistical materials from the statistical offices of the Warsaw Dukedom, the Prussian state, and the German Reich, including registration of natural movement, population and occupational censuses, agricultural censuses, and estimates of agricultural production.

The analysis distinguishes three demographic periods. In 1807-1840, population development was stationary, with migrational surplus and alternating birth and death surpluses - a period preceding the demographic revolution. In 1840-1871, a transitional period, death rates stabilized while emigration grew. In 1871-1914, the permanent fall of death rates marked the demographic revolution, and the subsequent fall of birth rates initiated the demographic counter-revolution. Malthusian positive checks - famine, epidemics - lost their decisive role around 1840 as preventive checks became more significant. Emigration, intensifying sharply after 1862, absorbed between 42% and 95% of natural increase in individual sub-periods. Great Poland showed the most dynamic emigration; Silesia the most stable demographic structure.