Croissance économique de la Pologne du Xe au XXe siècle (Remarques méthodiques et tentatives d’évaluation) [Economic Growth of Poland from the 10th to the 20th Century (Methodological Remarks and Attempts at Evaluation)]

Abstract

Economic historiography long relied on qualitative descriptions of economic development, lacking instruments capable of measuring growth in a global and dynamic manner over long periods. The absence of a synthetic index applicable on a millennial scale represented a significant gap, particularly in research on the Polish economy.
This article aims to develop a collective index of Poland's economic growth from the 10th to the 20th century and to propose a quantitative evaluation of the tempo and form of that growth over a millennium. The author also seeks to clarify the conceptual distinction between economic growth and economic development, and to discuss the possibilities and limitations of the various synthetic indices proposed in the literature.
The study is based on a critical analysis of indices discussed in the literature - national income, national product, selected commodity production, foreign trade data, and prices. The author proposes an original collective index combining cereal production (as an indicator of agricultural output) and iron and steel production (as an indicator of industrial output), both calculated per capita. The evaluations draw on existing estimates of Polish population and data on cereal and industrial production.
The analysis produces a curve of Poland's economic growth over ten centuries. It shows that the feudal economy was characterized by a low-level equilibrium, while the transition to accelerated growth occurred relatively late. The collective index clearly reveals periods of growth, stagnation, and decline - notably the interwar stagnation - as well as the recovery driven by the reforms of People's Poland. The results confirm the methodological value of synthetic indices in quantitative historical research.