The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on the Political Situation in the Middle East
Journal cover Przegląd Politologiczny, no. 1, year 2025
PDF (Język Polski)

Keywords

Russia
Iran
Israel
Turkey
Egypt

How to Cite

Bielicki, P. (2025). The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on the Political Situation in the Middle East. Przegląd Politologiczny, (1), 99–113. https://doi.org/10.14746/pp.2025.30.1.6

Abstract

The main objective of the considerations is to present the most important conditions and dependencies that allow for assessing the impact that the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had on the policy of the Middle East countries in the political and economic aspects. In this respect, it will also be important to try to analyze to what extent the role of the Russian Federation in the area in question may be strengthened or weakened.
At the beginning, we should present the position of Iran, which is key in this analysis due to the growing importance of this country in the international configuration. In addition, the subject of interest is also the view of the Egyptian authorities on the military operations in Ukraine. Additionally, it will be appropriate to address the views of the Israeli authorities on the war in Ukraine. We cannot also forget to trace Turkey’s policy in this matter, important due to its membership in NATO and the significant role of this country in the political processes taking place in the Arab world. The attitude of the Persian Gulf countries – especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - towards the actions conducted by the Russian Federation is also present in the further part of the article.
The summary presents possible scenarios for the future. It attempts to answer the question of how much the Russian Federation will be able to increase its geopolitical role in the Middle East and the readiness of Arab states to deepen cooperation with Moscow.

https://doi.org/10.14746/pp.2025.30.1.6
PDF (Język Polski)

References

Aboudouh A. (2022), Russia’s war in Ukraine is making Saudi Arabia and the UAE rethink how they deal with US pressure over China, 26.04.2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-ukraine-war-is-making-saudi-arabia-and-the-uae-rethink-how-they-deal-with-us-pressure-over-china/, 28.06.2023.

Al.-Saidi M. (2023), Caught off guard and beaten: The Ukraine war and food security in the Middle East, 21.02.2023, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9989265/, 23.05.2023.

Azizi H. (2023), Close but complicated. Iran-Russia relations in the Middle East Amid the War In Ukraine, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/international/20084.pdf, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, 12.06.2023.

Баттат З. (2023), Российско-израильские отношения и украинский кризис, 6.03.2023, https://ru.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/rossiysko-izrailskie-otnosheniya-i-ukrainskiy-krizis/, 24.05.2023.

Bishku M. B. (2017), Ukraine and the Middle East, „Mediterranean Quartely”, vol. 28, nr 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/10474552-3882797

Bobkin N. N. (2022), Impact of the Ukrainian Conflict on US Relations with Countries in the Middle East, „Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, vol. 92, nr 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18254/S207054760022702-9

Bornio J. (2018), Israeli-Ukrainian Relations after ‘the Euromaidan Revolution’ – the Holocaust and the New Ukrainian Identity in the Context of the European Aspirations of Ukraine, „Polish Political Science Yearbook”, vol 47, nr 2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15804/ppsy2018212

Borshchevskaya A. (2023), Russia’s Disinformation Machine Has a Middle East Advantage, 23.03.2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/23/russia-ukraine-war-disinformation-middle-east-rt-sputnik-arabic/, 22.06.2023.

Chaput V. (2022), The Russian-Iran strateghic partnership in the shadow of Ukraine’s war, (October 2022), https://finabel.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/IF.Russia-Iran.Vincent.pdf, 10.06.2023.

Cheterian V. (2023), Friend and Foe: Russia–Turkey relations before and after the war in Ukraine, “Small Wars & Insurgencies”, vol. 34, nr 2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2023.2185443

Denselow J., Ukraine and the Middle East: A year since Russia’s invasion, https://www.arabnews.com/sites/default/files/rp_ukraine_and_the_middle_east.pdf, 22.06.2023.

Drażdżewski M. (2022), Wojna na Ukrainie. Arabia Saudyjska gotowa do roli mediatora, 4.03.2022, https://www.wprost.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie/10644040/wojna-na-ukrainie-arabia-saudyjska-gotowa-do-roli-mediatora.html, 29.05.2023.

Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations, 13.07.2022, https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1174971.pdf, 2.06.2023.

For the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, an Israeli Foreign Minister is visiting Kyiv, 16.02.2023, https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/fm-cohen-diplomaticvisit-to-kiev, 23.06.2023.

Impacts of the war in Ukraine on the Arab region, https://www.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/news/docs/22-0331-policy-brief-impacts-ukraine-russia-en2_0.pdf, 15.06.2023.

Iran: Background and U.S. Policy, 23.03.2023, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/R47321.pdf, 28.05.2023.

Izrael jako jedyny kraj Zachodu nie poparł w ONZ reparacji dla Ukrainy. Media: To zemsta, 15.11.2022, https://forsal.pl/swiat/ukraina/artykuly/8587828,izrael-jako-jedyny-kraj-zachodu-nie-poparl-w-onz-reparacji-dla-ukrainy-media-to-zemsta.html, 11.06.2023.

Izrael nie chce się narazić Rosji? Odmówiono rozmowy z ministrem obrony Ukrainy, 18.10.2022, https://polskieradio24.pl/5/1223/artykul/3055652,izrael-nie-chce-sie-narazic-rosji-odmowiono-rozmowy-z-ministrem-obrony-ukrainy, 25.06.2023.

Izraelska pomoc dla Ukrainy. „Nie można posunąć się za daleko bez prowokowania Rosji”, 4.02.2023, https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/premier-izraela-o-pomocy-dla-ukrainy-bez-prowokowania-rosji/df734sh, 4.05.2023.

Jenkins B. M. (2023), Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention – Turkey and the Balkans, 6.03.2023, https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/03/consequences-of-the-war-in-ukraine-turkey-and-the-balkans.html, 21.06.2023.

Kappel R. (2022), Russia and Africa: the Invasion of Ukraine Leads to the Next Major Crisis, „Strategic Review for Southern Africa”, vol. 44, nr 1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.35293/srsa.v44i1.4044

Karami J. (2022), Iran-Russia Relations: New Opportunities and Existing Problems, „In Quaestio Rossica”, vol. 10, nr 4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/qr.2022.4.727

Концепция внешней политики Российской Федерации (утверждена Президентом Российской Федерации В. В. Путиным 31 марта 2023 г.), 31.03.2023, https://www.mid.ru/ru/detail-material-page/1860586/, 22.06.2023.

Kostem S. (2022), Managed Regional Rivalry Between Russia and Turkey After the Annexation of Crimea, „Europe-Asia Studies”, vol. 74, nr 9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2022.2134308

Ларюэль M. (2023), Мусульманский мир и война в Украине, „Notes De L’Ifri”, nr 127.

Loft P., Stewart I., Curtis J. (2022), Alternatives to Russian oil: Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and Venezuela?, 11.04.2022, https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9518/CBP-9518.pdf, 11.06.2023.

Маслов A. A., Свиридовв Ю., Коломин В. О., Тангаева А. В., Великих Г. П., Ерохина С. А. (2022), Россия и египет: траектория сотрудничества, https://roscongress.org/upload/medialibrary/a68/Russia_Egypt_rus.pdf.

Masters J. (2020), Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia, 5.02.2020, https://indianstrategicknowledgeonline.com/web/Ukraine_%20Conflict%20at%20the%20Crossroads%20of%20Europe%20and%20Russia%20_%20Council%20on%20Foreign%20Relations.pdf, 19.06.2023.

Middle East and North Africa: Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War, 2.06.2023, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/R47160.pdf, 25.06.2023.

Miguel M., Russia’s relationship with Iran in the context of the 21st century geopolitics, 22.04.2022, https://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2022/DIEEEO36_2022_MARBAL_Rusia_ENG.pdf, 13.06.2023.

Niakooee S. A., Rahdar H. (2022), The Middle East and Iran in Russia’s Foreign Policy after the Ukraine War, “Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs”, nr 2.

Notte H. (2022), “The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russia’s Role in the Middle East” Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism, https://nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/impact_russias_ukraine_invasion_middle_east_north_africa.pdf, 18.05.2022.

Palik J., Tank P. (2022), The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Saudi-Iranian Relationship, „Mideeast Policy Brief”, nr 3.

Rivlin P. (2022), The Ukraine War and the Middle East: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer, „Middle East Economy”, nr 3.

Surdel B. (2022), Wojna na Ukrainie: reakcje Bliskiego Wschodu, https://csm.org.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-reakcje-bliskiego-wschodu/, 14.06.2023.

Szymański D. (2022), Turcja zaczyna nowy atak. Dla Rosji to kolejna rozgrywka o dużą stawkę, 14.11.2022, https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/turcja-zaczyna-nowy-atak-dla-rosji-to-kolejna-rozgrywka-o-duza-stawke-6837100303661760a.html, 24.06.2023.

Vatanka A., Divsallar A. (2023), Can the West Stop Russian-Iranian Convergence?, 3.04.2023, https://www.mei.edu/publications/can-west-stop-russian-iranian-convergence, 29.05.2023.

Waleński T. (2022), Władimir Putin ostrzegł następcę tronu w Arabii Saudyjskiej, 4.03.2022, https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/putin-ostrzega-przed-upolitycznieniem-energii-6743625981147712a, 22.06.2023.

Wehrey F. (2022), The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine in the Middle East and North Africa, 19.05.2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/05/19/impact-of-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-in-middle-east-and-north-africa-pub-87163, 20.06.2023.

Wojnarowicz M. (2023), Stosunki izraelsko-rosyjskie w kontekście wojny na Ukrainie, 2.03.2023, https://www.pism.pl/publikacje/stosunki-izraelsko-rosyjskie-w-kontekscie-wojny-na-ukrainie, 30.05.2023.

Wójcik Ł. (2023), Iran i Arabia Saudyjska podały sobie ręce. Powiało rewolucją. Ale to zagrywka Pekinu, 13.03.2023, https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2205072,1,iran-i-arabia-saudyjska-podaly-sobie-rece-powialo-rewolucja-ale-to-zagrywka-pekinu.read, 1.07.2023.

Zachód naciska na ZEA. Podejrzewa, że kraj ten pomaga Rosji obchodzić sankcje, 2.03.2023, https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/zachod-naciska-na-zea-podejrzewa-ze-kraj-ten-pomaga-rosji-obchodzic-sankcje-6872114191579840a.html, 26.06.2023.