Conditions for Poland’s Membership in the European Union. Is Polexit a Real Possibility?

Abstract

The author analyzes the impact of geopolitical and domestic changes on the debate surrounding Poland’s membership in the European Union. In the context of the war in Ukraine, the return of Donald Trump, and the rise of the alternative right, voices have emerged calling for a redefinition of Poland-European Union relations. This has led to a debate about polexit. Although membership in the EU and NATO is the foundation of Poland’s security, the growing influence of the Confederation – especially among young voters – is challenging this consensus. The document, titled “Polexit: A Safe Emergency Exit,” presents a scenario for leaving the EU. Research indicates a decline in support for integration, especially among young people, who assess it primarily through the prism of tangible benefits. The author concludes that while Polexit is currently not a realistic prospect, its possibility depends on changes in the Polish political scene and the stability of public support for EU membership. This raises the question of whether these changes will lead to polexit or to the marginalization of Poland’s position in the European Union (Decopuling).