Strategic Environment of East Asia in 2017–18 Analysis of Key Trends and Issues
PDF (English)

Słowa kluczowe

East Asia
great power rivalry
international security

Jak cytować

WIŚNIEWSKI, R. (2018). Strategic Environment of East Asia in 2017–18 Analysis of Key Trends and Issues. Przegląd Strategiczny, (11), 395–408. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2018.1.27

Abstrakt

The international security environment of East Asia is undergoing dynamic changes. This articleis another instalment in a series of analysis initiated by the “Strategic Review” in 2017. It deals with international security situation in various regions. The article’s main aim is to present the influence of selected international events of 2017’s second half and 2018s first half on the evolution of East Asia’s long term international security environment. In order to achieve
this aim the author has posed two research questions: what long term trends have the strongest influence on international security environment of East Asia? and, do key events of 2017–18 increase or decrease stability of the regional security environment? Following research methods have been adopted to solve this research problem: the comparative method, legal-institutional analysis and forecasting method based on identification of key trends shaping the evolution
of the studied phenomenon. The main conclusions are twofold. First, the most important long term trends shaping the international security environment of East Asia are, on the one side, the growing bipolarity of the regional order (with US and PRC as main protagonists) and, on the other side, other player’s attempts to increase the degree of their own autonomy. The events of 2017–18 show that almost all regional powers act to limit the tensions. It doesn’t change the
fact that long term trends point towards a growing confrontation of two contradictory visions of regional order – one championed by USA, and the other by PRC.
https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2018.1.27
PDF (English)

Bibliografia

At the sharp end (2017), “The Economist”, 14.12.2017, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2017/12/14/how-chinas-sharp-power-is-muting-criticism-abroad (31.05.2018).

Brooks S. G., Wohlforth W. C. (2015), The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position, “International Security”,

Vol. 40, No. 3.

Buruma I. (2017), Are China and the United States Headed for War?, “The New Yorker”, 19.06.2017, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/06/19/are-china-and-the-united-states-headedfor-war (1.06.2018).

Feng Zhang (2018), Chinese Visions of the Asian Political-Security Order, “Asia Policy”, 2018, Vol. 13, No. 2.

Ford L. (2018), Promise vs. Experience: How to Fix the ‘Free & Open Indo-Pacific’, “War On The Rocks”. 10.04.2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/04/promise-vs-experience-how-to-fixthe-free-open-indo-pacific/ (1.06.2018).

Gawlikowski K. (2004), Azja Wschodnia po drugiej wojnie światowej i znaczenie przełomu lat 80. i 90. XX w. [East Asia after the Second World War and the significance of the turn of 1980 and 1990s], in: Azja Wschodnia na przełomie XX i XXI wieku: przemiany polityczne i społeczne: studia i szkice [East Asia at the turn of the XXth and XXIst Century: political and social changes: studies and sketches], Vol. 1, (eds.) K. Gawlikowski, M. Ławacz, Warszawa.

Goh E. (2008), Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia Analyzing Regional Security

Strategies, “International Security”, Vol. 32, No. 3.

Gross Domestic Product 2015 (2015), World Development Indicators database, World Bank, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf (10.05.2017).

Harrison M. (2017), What a Lawmaker’s Downfall Reveals About Australian Attitudes on China, “War On The Rocks”, https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/what-a-lawmakers-downfallreveals-about-australian-attitudes-on-china/ (31.05.2018).

Heisbourg F. (2018), War and Peace After the Age of Liberal Globalisation, “Survival Global Politics and Strategy”, Vol. 60, No. 1.

Kai Liao (2013), The Pentagon and the Pivot, “Survival Global Politics and Strategy”, Vol. 55, No. 3.

Madan, T. (2017), The Rise, Fall, and Rebirth of the ‘Quad’, “War On The Rocks”, 16.11.2017, https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/rise-fall-rebirth-quad/ (31.05.2018).

National Security Strategy of the United States of America (2017), https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf (17.02.2018).

Panda A. (2017), China’s November Customs Data and North Korean Sanctions Enforcement, “The Diplomat”, 27.12.2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/chinas-november-customs-dataand-north-korean-sanctions-enforcement/ (31.05.2018).

Rehman I., Auslin M., Ayson R., Kania E. B., Lee S., Tiffany Ma O’Keefe B., Schake K. (2018), Policy Roundtable: Are the United States and China in a New Cold War?, “Texas National

Security Review”, 15.05.2018, https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-are-the-unitedstates-and-china-in-a-new-cold-war/ (1.06.2018).

Smith J. M. (2018), Unpacking the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, “War On The Rocks”, 14.03.2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/03/unpacking-the-free-and-open-indo-pacific/ (1.06.2018).

Terada T. (2018), The competing U.S. and Chinese models for an East Asian economic order, “Asia Policy”, Vol. 13, No. 2.

Tiezzi S. (2017), What Did China Accomplish at the Belt and Road Forum?, “The Diplomat”, 16.05.2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/05/what-did-china-accomplish-at-the-belt-androad-forum/ (31.05.2018).

Tiezzi S. (2018), China, North Korea Hold Second Summit, “The Diplomat”, 9.05.2018, https://thediplomat.

com/2018/05/china-north-korea-hold-second-summit/ (31.05.2018).

Tow W., Auslin M., Medcalf R., Tanaka A., Zhu Feng Simon S. W. (2008), Assessing the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue, NBR Report.

Trading Places (2018), “The Economist”, 24.01.2018, https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/01/24/

asia-is-taking-the-lead-in-promoting-free-trade (31.05.2018).

Trends in world military expenditure 2016 (2017), SIPRI, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/

Trends-world-military-expenditure-2016.pdf (10.05.2017).

Trevithik J. (2018a), US Military Says Chinese Lasers Injured Pilots Flying A C-130 Near Its Base in Djibouti, “The Warzone”, 3-05-2018, http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20615/

us-military-says-chinese-lasers-injured-pilots-flying-a-c-130-near-its-base-in-djibouti (31.05.2018).

Trevithik J. (2018b), SAMs And Anti-Ship Missiles Are Now Guarding China’s Man-Made South China

Sea Islands, “The Warzone”, 3.05.2018, http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20616/

sams-and-anti-ship-missiles-are-now-guarding-chinas-man-made-south-china-sea-islands

(31.05.2018).

What the West got wrong (2018), “The Economist”, 1.03.2018, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/03/01/how-the-west-got-china-wrong (1.06.2018).

Wiśniewski R., Hensarling B. (2015), Power in 2025: A Global Ranking, “R/evolutions: Global Trends & Regional Issues”, Vol. 3, No. 1.

Xi Jinping (2017), Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China October 18, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/2017-11/03/c_136725942.htm(31.05.2018).