Koncepcja pokojowego wzrostu Chin według paradygmatu realistycznego
PDF (English)

Słowa kluczowe

USA
Chiny
pokojowy wzrost Chin
ofensywny realizm

Jak cytować

Araszkiewicz, A. (2021). Koncepcja pokojowego wzrostu Chin według paradygmatu realistycznego. Przegląd Strategiczny, (14), 297–312. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2021.1.17

Abstrakt

Ten artykuł ma na celu odniesienie się do kilku zagadnień badawczych. Po pierwsze, przedstawić ofensywny realizm jako odpowiednie narzędzie badawcze do analizy rywalizacji USA-Chiny. Po drugie, autor omawia teorię „pokojowego wzrostu Chin” i argumentuje, iż była ona w zasadniczej mierze kompatybilna z amerykańską strategią liberalnej hegemonii. Po trzecie, autor przedstawia i broni argumentu, iż rozwój Chin nie odbywa się pokojowo. Po czwarte, autor twierdzi, że Chiny chcą zostać regionalnym hegemonem w Azji Południowo-Wschodniej, a USA zgodnie z ofensywnym realizmem nie mogą na to pozwolić. Wreszcie autor rozważa argumenty, które są często używane na poparcie teorii „pokojowego wzrostu Chin” i wyjaśnia, dlaczego nie oddają one aktualnego i nie przewidują przyszłego charakteru stosunków USA-Chiny. W artykule zastosowano następujące metody badawcze: historyczną, opisową i decyzyjną.

https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2021.1.17
PDF (English)

Bibliografia

Allison G. (2018), Destined for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap, Scribe, Melbourne–London.

Angell N. (1913), The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage, 3rd edition, G.P. Putnam’s Sons, New York–London, https://www.gutenberg.org/files/38535/38535-h/38535-h.htm (01.03.2021).

Bijian Z. (2005), China’s peaceful rise, Speeches of Zheng Bijian 1997–2005, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/20050616bijianlunch.pdf (10.01.2021).

Brown K. (2017), CEO, China, The Rise of Xi Jinping, I.B. Tauris, London–New York.

Callahan B. (2015), John Mearsheimer and Joseph S. Nye Jr. on the rise of China and America’s engagement policy, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/mearsheimer-vs-nye-on-the-rise-of-china/ (22.02.2021).

Cheng D. (2020), Challenging China’s “Wolf Warrior” Diplomats, Backgrounder No. 3504, Asian Studies Center, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/BG3504.pdf (09.02.2021).

Cheng E. (2020), Fitch upgrades its China growth forecast for 2021, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/fitch-upgrades-its-china-growth-forecast-for-2021.html (14.01.2021).

CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/fitch-upgrades-its-china-growth-forecast-for-2021.html (14.01.2021).

China: labor productivity per hour 2018, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/878164/china-labor-productivity-per-hour/ (29.12.2020).

China Population (2021), Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/china-population/ (07.01.2021).

Cooley A., Nexon D. (2020), Exit from Hegemony: The Unraveling of the American Global Order, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Countries with the highest military spending worldwide in 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/ 20.03.2021.

Dalton T., Zhao T. (2020), At a crossroads? China-India Nuclear Relations After the Border Clash, Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/08/19/at-crossroads-china-india-nuclear-relations-after-border-clash-pub-82489 (09.02.2021).

Davies N. (2005), God’s Playground: A History of Poland, Revised Edition, Volume 1: The Origins to 1795, Colambia University Press, New York, https://vk.com/doc278943367_496930103?hash=fe75315e7ec8a6e81b (10.02.2021).

Dossani R., Harold S. W. (2016), Maritime Issues in the East and South China Seas. Summary of a Conference Held January 12–13, 2016, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF300/CF358/RAND_CF358.pdf (16.02.2021).

Elliot J. H. (2006), Empires of the Atlantic world: Britain and Spain in America, 1492–1830, Yale University Press, New Haven, https://archive.org/details/empiresofatlanti00john/mode/2up, (01.03.2021).

Ellis-Petersen H. (2021), Indian troops brawl with Chinese counterparts on border, “The Guardian”, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/india-soldiers-brawled-with-chinese-counterparts-on-border (09.02.2021).

Envall H. D. P. (2019), The quadrilateral security dialogue: Towards an Indo-Pacific Order? Policy Report, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335880138_The_Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue_Towards_an_Indo-Pacific_order_Policy_Report_S_Rajaratnam_School_of_International_Studies (16.02.2021).

Erdrich M., Komoróczy B., Madejski P., Vlach M. (2020), Marcomannic Wars and Antonine Plague Selected essays on two disasters that shook the Roman World, Lubelskie Materiały Archeologiczne, Brno–Lublin, t. XVII, https://www.academia.edu/44538517/M_Erdrich_B_Komor%C3%B3czy_P_Madejski_M_Vlach_eds_Marcomannic_Wars_and_Antonine_Plague_Selected_essays_on_two_disasters_that_shook_the_Roman_World_Die_Markomannenkriege_und_die_Antoninische_Pest_Ausgew%C3%A4hlte_Essays_zu_zwei_Desastern_die_das_R%C3%B6mische_Reich_ersch%C3%BCtterten (01.03.2021).

Ferchen M., Perera A. (2019), Belt and Road Initiative. Why Unsustainable Chinese Infrastructure Deals Are a Two-Way Street, Carnegie – Tshingua Center for Global Policy, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/7-15-19_Ferchen_Debt_Trap.pdf (09.02.2021).

Forczyk R. (2016), We March Against England: Operation See Lion, 1940–41, Osprey, Oxford, https://www.amazon.com/We-March-Against-England-Operation/dp/1472829832/ref=pd_sbs_2pd_rd_w=QeDIG&pf_rd_p=5e0f7f8d-f321-4a3e-bdac3142fcd848d7&pf_rd_r=Y5R87GYZRMPG4DB0XPE6&pd_rd_r=7bc33191-e488-4b52-9f132f0fbab80d61&pd_rd_wg=wzphD&pd_rd_i=1472829832&psc=1 (05.03.2021).

Fukuyama F. (2012), The Origins of Political Order: from prehuman times to the French revolution, Profile Books, London.

Geraci M., Cooper A., Li M. (2020), Blue Dots and Red Roads, Frictions and the Potential for Limited Cooperation Between Chinese and U.S. International Development Models, Institute for China-America Studies, Washington, https://chinaus-icas.org/staging/6779/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Blue-Dots-and-Red-Roads.pdf (09.02.2021).

Green W. (2020), Conflict on the Sino-Indian Border: Background for Congress, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/Conflict_on_Sino-Indian_Border.pdf (09.02.2021).

Grossman D. (2020), Military Build-up in The South China Sea, The South China Sea: From a Regional Maritime Dispute to Geo-Strategic Competition, Routledge, RAND, London (19.02.2021).

Góralczyk B. (2018), Wielki renesans. Chińska transformacja i jej konsekwencje, Dialog, Warsaw.

Hamilton C. (2018), Silent Invasion: China’s Influence in Australia, Hardie Grant, Melbourne.

Ishizu T. (2014), Amphibious Warfare: Theory and Practice, 2014 International Forum on War History, http://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/event/forum/pdf/2014/11.pdf (05.03.2021).

Kant I. (1795), Perpetual Peace, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303838832_Immanuel_Kant’s_Perpetual_Peace_The_New_World_Order_of_Critical_Philosophy (05.01.2021).

Kissinger H. (2011), On China, The Penguin Press, New York.

Krauthammer Ch. (1990–1991), The Unipolar Moment, “Foreign Affairs”, Vol. 70, No. 1, America and the World 1990/91 (1990/1991), pp. 23–33, http://users.metu.edu.tr/utuba/Krauthammer.pdf (28.12.2020).

Laurenceson J., Zhou M. (2020), COVID-19 and the Australia-China relationship’s zombie economic idea, Australia-China Relations Institute, Sydney, https://www.australiachinarelations.org/sites/default/files/20200507%20Australia-China%20Relations%20Institute%20report_COVID-19%20and%20the%20Australia-China%20relationship%E2%80%99s%20zombie%20economic%20idea_James%20Laurenceson%20Michael%20Zhou.pdf (16.02.2021).

Lohmeyer M. (2008), The Diaoyu / Senkaku Islands Dispute Questions of Sovereignty and Suggestions for Resolving the Dispute, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10092/4085/thesis_fulltext.pdf;jsessionid=AE09BF0FF056D289412D94F9FDD81C82?sequence=1 (16.02.2021).

Mahbubani K. (2020), Has China won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, PublicAffairs, New York.

Mattingly D. C., Sundquist J. (2021), Public Diplomacy and Its Limits, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51cdc7e5e4b0d7474642bcb0/t/600f8d8ffb5216ec2f0f69e/1611632020110/China_Public_Diplomacy_v3.pdf (09.02.2021).

Mclaughlin T. (2020), How Milk Tea Became an Anti-China Symbol, The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/milk-tea-alliance-anti-china/616658/ (28.02.2021).

Mearsheimer J. J. (2010), The gathering storm, “The Chinese Journal of International Politics”, Vol. 3, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8cbe/90897f22a9ff2b4cfafb3e4900cfc089a3ad.pdf?_ga=2.188185952.911081758.1611195610-574350635.1598697473 (07.01.2021).

Mearsheimer J. J. (2014), The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W.W. Norton & Company, New York.

Mearsheimer J. J. (2018), The great delusion. Liberal dreams and international realities, CT: Yale University Press, New Haven.

Nagy S. R. (2020), Mitigating China’s economic coercion, “The Japan Times”, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/05/21/commentary/mitigating-chinas-economic-coercion/ (16.02.2021).

Miyake K. (2017), China as a Middle East Power: The Pros and Cons of a More Assertive and Capable China in the Gulf and Beyond, Chia’s Bluewater Navy Series, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep06119.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A8f81f3d87a50e4c0fcd99b017ce712c7 (02.01.2021).

Mosher S. W. (2007), Hegemon. Droga Chin do dominacji, Sprawy Polityczne, Warsaw.

Nonneman G. (1996), The (Geo)political economy of Iraqi‐Kuwaiti relations, Geopolitics and International Boundaries, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233197307_The_Geopolitical_economy_of_Iraqi-Kuwaiti_relations (01.03.2021).

Nye J. S. Jr (2010), American and Chinese Power after the Financial Crisis, “The Washington Quarterly”, https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/journals/twq/v33i4/f_0020821_17305.pdf (22.02.2021).

Obstfeld M. (2009), Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan’s Economy, 1985–2008, University of California, Berkeley, https://eml.berkeley.edu/~obstfeld/paper_march09.pdf (10.02.2021).

Park J. (2020), Why the US-led Quad alliance won’t realise its ‘Asian Nato’ ambition against China, “South China Morning Post”, https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3107469/why-us-led-quad-alliance-wont-realise-its-asian-nato-ambition (16.02.2021).

Philip M. (2005), Napoleon and the Invasion of Britain, Bodleian Library, University of Oxford, Oxford.

Projected GDP ranking, https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php, 20.03.2021.

Rajagopalan R. P. (2020), Towards a Quad-Plus Arrangement?, US-Asia Centre, Perth, https://perthusasia.edu.au/getattachment/Our-Work/Towards-a-Quad-Plus-Arrangement/PU-160-Quad-0421b-WEB.pdf.aspx?lang=en-AU (2.02.2021).

Rosen M. E. (2014), Philippine Claims in the South China Sea: A Legal Analysis, A CNA Occasional Paper, https://www.cna.org/cna_files/pdf/iop-2014-u-008435.pdf (16.02.2021).

Russell C. (2021), Column: China fails to learn from Trump backfire in trade war, is losing against Australia, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-russell-commodities-china-aust-idUSKBN29W0HE (16.02.2021).

Sato K. (2019), The Senkaku Islands Dispute: Four Reasons of the Chinese Offensive – A Japanese View, “Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies”, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24761028.2019.1626567 (16.02.2021).

Sediv´y M. (2013), Metternich, the Great Powers and the Eastern Question, University of West Bohemia, Pilsen, http://www.egyptandaustria.at/documents/Metternich,%20the%20Great%20Powers%20and%20the%20Eastern%20Question.pdf (10.02.2021).

Smith J. M. (2020), The Quad 2.0: A Foundation for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, The Heritage Foundation, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/BG3481.pdf (19.02.2021).

South Korea: labor productivity 2019, Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/642275/south-korea-labor-productivity/ (07.01.2021).

Steinsson S. (2014), John Mearsheimer’s Theory of Offensive Realism and the Rise of China, E-International relations, https://www.e-ir.info/pdf/47402 (24.12.2020).

Suettinger R. L. (2004), The Rise and Descent of “Peaceful Rise”, https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/clm12_rs.pdf (07.01.2021).

Swaine M. D. (2013), Chinese Views Regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Dispute, “China Leadership Monitor”, No. 41, Hoover Institution, https://www.hoover.org/publications/china-leadership-monitor/spring-2013 (16.02.2021).

The CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/208rank.html (29.12.2020).

The World Bank data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN (12.01.2021).

Turnbull S. (2010), The Mongol Invasion of Japan 1273 and 1281, Osprey Publishing, Oxford, http://www.siamcostumes.com/cutters_guides/pdf/the-mongol-invasions-of-Japan-1274-and-1281-campaign.pdf (01.03.2021).

United States Nonfarm Labour Productivity, 1950–2020 Data, 2021–2023, Forecast https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/productivity (29.12.2020).

United States Population (2021) – Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ (07.01.2021).

Waltz K. (2010), Theory of International Politics, Waveland Press, Long Grove.

Wested O. A. (2020), Legacies of the Past In: China and the World, Edited by David Shambaugh, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

World GDP, http://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php (07.01.2021).

World Military Spending, https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/ (24.12.2020).

Xiaotong W., Anke H., Xingxiang Z., Zhengyao J., Dong W., Fang H., Xijie Y. (2019), Resettlement strategies and Han imperial expansion into southwest China: a multimethod approach to colonialism and migration, “Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences” 11: 6751–6781, Springer, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12520-019-00938-w (22.02.2021).

Zoellick R. B. (2005), Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility? Remarks to National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, U.S. Department of State Archive, New York City, https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm (22.02.2021).