Russia’s Aggression against Ukraine and South Asia: What Are the Implications of Moscow’s Nuclear Blackmail for India and Pakistan?

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the implications of Russia’s nuclear blackmail for India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed states that remain outside the UN Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons framework and that have been engaged in a protracted conflict for over seven decades. Indeed, the trajectory of India and Pakistan’s rocky bilateral relationship in addition to Pakistan’s characterisation as a “terror state” lacking a “no-first-use” pledge in its nuclear doctrine has earned South Asia a reputation as a nuclear flash point. Therefore, considering the region’s fragile geopolitical and security situation, it is essential to identify whether and how India and Pakistan have reacted to the nuclear element of the war in Ukraine and what lessons these states can learn for their identities and behaviours as nuclear powers. To investigate that this paper triangulates selected primary and secondary sources on Putin’s nuclear signalling and its global implications, as well as New Delhi’s and Islamabad’s reactions to this performance. Both South Asian states adopted the so-called “neutral” standing vis-à-vis the war in Ukraine and distanced themselves from Putin’s nuclear signalling. The post-invasion period has witnessed New Delhi and Islamabad emphasising the deterrent potential of their nuclear arsenals and avoiding nuclear rhetoric against each other.