Wojna w Górskim Karabachu z 2020 roku i zmiana regionalnego status quo
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Słowa kluczowe

wojna karabaska 2020 r.
Rosja
Turcja
geopolityka
równowaga sił

Jak cytować

Hayrapetyan, L. (2022). Wojna w Górskim Karabachu z 2020 roku i zmiana regionalnego status quo. Przegląd Politologiczny, (1), 83–97. https://doi.org/10.14746/pp.2022.27.1.6

Abstrakt

Celem artykułu jest określenie, w jaki sposób zmiana status quo w następstwie wojny karabaskiej 2020 roku wpłynęła na pozycję Rosji w regionie. Autorka stara się odpowiedzieć na pytanie, jak ta zmiana wpłynęła na geopolityczny układ sił Rosji. Autorka posłużyła się metodą analizy wydarzeń historycznych, zbadała zarówno oficjalne informacje, jak i opinie niezależnych ekspertów przed podjęciem najważniejszych zapisów, porównując, przeciwstawiając i analizując te często diametralnie przeciwstawne prognozy i opinie. Autorka przekonuje, że wbrew niektórym spekulacjom sytuacja mogła się zmienić na niekorzyść Rosji w dłuższej perspektywie. Wojna karabaska w 2020 roku uwydatniła rywalizację między mocarstwami regionalnymi, w tym Turcją, w regionie i poza nim. W wyniku wojny z 2020 roku Rosja rozmieściła siły pokojowe w Górskim Karabachu, ale musiała też liczyć się z istotnymi wpływami Turcji w regionie, który ma tendencję do ekspansji na Azję Centralną i Północny Kaukaz. Aby przeciwstawić się regionalnej konkurencji, Moskwa opracowała politykę wspierania projektów współpracy gospodarczej między walczącymi państwami, aby wzmocnić wewnętrzną spójność na tym obszarze poradzieckim. Pozwoli to Rosji na przekształcenie Kaukazu Południowego w mniej lub bardziej stabilny region, który będzie jej pasem buforowym z gwarantowanymi niewrogimi reżimami.

https://doi.org/10.14746/pp.2022.27.1.6
PDF (English)

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