Abstrakt
Przedmiotem badania jest relacja między wydatkami niekwalifikowanym budżetu pomocy społecznej w ramach ograniczonego budżetu Korei w okresie 1965–2008. W artykule wskazano, że pomoc publiczna i wydatki na usługi społeczne są nie do porównania z wydatkami ubezpieczenia narodowego zgodnie z wielowariantowymi modelami ARIMA Box-Jenkins. Ich obecność poddana współmierności jest fałszywa ze względu na wpływ czynników polityczno-gospodarczych. Rezultaty badania w tym artykule mogą wnieść wkład w rozwój teorii budżetowej i polityk budżetowych. Jednak niektóre rezultaty badań powstałych w oparciu o modele ARIMA mogły być nieadekwatne do poddania interpretacji w ramach istniejących teorii i formułują przypuszczenia takie jak te z dziewięcioletnim opóźnieniem, etc. W związku z tym dalsze badania są konieczne.Bibliografia
Advisory Council on Social Security (1980), Social Security Financing, “Social Security Bulletin” 43(5), pp. 18–29.
Beck N. (1982), Does there exist a political business cycle: A Box-Tiao analysis, Public Choice 38(2), pp. 205–209.
Breunig C. (2003), Distribution of budget changes in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, “Paper presented at the Western Political Science Meetings”, Portland, OR, March 11–13.
Clayton L. (1976), The Fiscal Limits to the Warfare-Welfare State: Defense and Welfare Spending in the U.S. since 1900, “Western Political Quarterly”, 29.
Congressional Budget Office, the Congress of the Republic of Korea (1965–2008) Fiscal yearbook.
Downs A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy, Harper&Row, New York.
Edwards R. E et al. (1972), The Capitalist System: A Radical Analysis of American Society, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs.
Gujarati D. (1978) Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Hanm S., Kamlet S., Mowery C. (1996), The Political Economy of Deficit Spending in Nine Industrialized Parliamentary Democracies: The Role of Fiscal Institutions, “Comparative Political Studies” 29, pp. 52–77.
Henrekson M. (1993), Law-A spurious relationship?, “Public Finance” 48(2), pp. 406–415.
Jordan M. (2002), Punctuated Equilibrium: An Agenda-Based Theory of Budgeting, in: Budget Theory in the Public Sector, eds. A. Khan, W. B. Hildreth, Quorum Books, London, pp. 202–215.
Key V. O. (1949), Southern Politics in State and Nation, Knof, New York.
Korea National Assembly (2009), The annals of the Republic of Korea National Assembly from 1948 to 2008.
McCleary R., Hay R. A. (1980), Applied Time Series for the Social Sciences, Sage, Beverly Hill, Cal.
Monroe K. (1983), Political manipulation of the economy: a closer look at political business cycle, “Presidential Studies Quarterly” 13, pp. 37–49.
Monroe R., Metcalf L. (1983), Economic influences on presidential popularity among key political and socioeconomic groups: A review of the evidence and some new findings, “Political Behaviour” 5(3), pp. 309–345.
Mueller D. (2003), Public Choice III, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Myers R. J. (1983), Financial Status of the Social Security Program, “Social Security Bulletin” 46(3), pp. 3–13.
Nordhaus W. (1975), The Political Business Cycle, “Review of Economic Studies” 42, pp. 169–190.
O’Neill J. A. (1979), Alternatives for Financing a Mature Social Security System, in: Controlling the Cost of Social Security, ed. C. D. Campbell, D. C. Heath and Company, Lexington, Mass.
Oestrum C. (1978), A reactive linkage model of the U.S. defence expenditure policy making process, “American Political Science Review” 72, pp. 941–957.
Peroff K. (1977), The Warfare-Welfare Trade-off: Health, Public Aid and Housing, “Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare” 4(1), pp. 1125–1140.
Peroff K., Pedolak-Warren M. (1979), Does Spending on Defence Cut Spending on Health? A Time-Series Analysis of the US Economy 1929–1974, “British Journal of Political Science” 9(1), pp. 21–39.
Robinson S. (2004), Punctuated Equilibrium, Bureaucratization, and Budgetary Changes in Schools, “Policy Studies Journal” 32(1), pp. 25–39.
Rubin S. (2000), The Politics of Public Budgeting, Seven Bridges Press, New York.
Russett B. (1982), Defense expenditures and national well-being, “American Political Science Review” 76, pp. 767–777.
SAS Institute Inc. (1982), SAS ETS, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC.
Soh Byung Hee (1988), Political instability and economic fluctuations in the Republic of Korea, “Public Choice” 57(3), pp. 259–274.
Song Keun-Won (1989a), Determinants of the Social Insurance Expenditure in US, “Korean Political Science Review” 23(1), pp. 299–315.
Song Keun-Won (1989b), Determinants of the Public Assistance Expenditure in US, “Korean Public Administration Review” 23(1), pp. 331–341.
Tim J., Nic M. (1999), Consumption, sustainable welfare and human needs-with reference to UK expenditure patterns between 1954 and 1994, “Ecological Economics” 28, pp. 421–441.
Tufte (1978), Political Control of the Economy, Princeton University Press.
Van de Water P. N. (1984), Social Security Financing: An Overview of the Issues and Options, in: Controlling the Cost of Social Security, ed. C. D. Campbell, D.C. Heath and Company, pp. 59–79.
Wagner R. E. (1983), Funded Social security: Collective and Private Options, “Cato Journal” 3(2).
Wildavsky A. (1984), The Politics of the Budgetary Process, 4th ed., Brown and Co., Little.
Yu Geum-Rok (2007), A Time Series Analysis of Policy Punctuations in the Korean Central Government Budget, “The Korean Association for Public Administration” 41(2), pp. 95–116. Web Search
The Korean Statistical Information Service, http://kosis.kr.
The Bank of Korea Economic Statistics System, http://ecos.bok.or.kr.