Abstract
At the end of March 2017, the British government initiated the legal procedure of withdrawal from the EU, beginning the two-year countdown towards Brexit. However, as of August 2019, the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations is still pending. The Brexit uncertainty over the years has had an impact on the UK economy negatively affecting, e.g., its growth. This paper addresses the impact of Brexit, however from the viewpoint of Germany, focusing on the economic and social perspective. For our analyses, we differentiate between the announcement of Brexit and the possible final outcomes of Brexit. From an economic perspective, our analyses focus on the four freedoms of the European Single Market. From a social perspective, our analyses focus on mobility, studying and training in the UK, financial transactions and consumer rights. Using descriptive statistics primarily based on data from Destatis and Eurostat, we expect the following implications. From an economic perspective, we expect negative implications like worsening trade relationship between the UK and Germany affecting jobs, especially in the automotive sector. From a social perspective, we also expect negative implications like increasing travel costs to the UK, increasing mobile phone roaming charges, additional healthcare insurance. Further areas impacted by Brexit may be studying and training in the UK, financial transactions and customers rights.
References
Aichele R., Felbermayr G. (2015), Kosten und Nutzen eines Austritts des vereinigten Königreichs aus der Europäischen Union, Bertelsmann Stiftung, https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/BREXIT_DE.pdf, 22.06.2019.
Arnórsson Á., Zoega G. (2016), On the causes of Brexit, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/147310, 19.06.2019.
Barth D. (1999), The Prospects of International Trade in Services, Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Bonn, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/stabsabteilung/00524.pdf, 04.07.2019.
BBC (2019a), Boris Johnson wins race to be Tory leader and PM, 23.07.2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49084605, 20.08.2019.
BBC (2019b), Brexit: Your simple guide to the UK leaving the EU, 21.05.2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46318565, 19.06.2019.
BBC (2019c), News: UK. Brexit, 22.08.2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu, 22.08.2019.
BBC (2019d), The UK’s European elections 2019, 06.2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019, 19.06.2019.
Brautzsch H.-U., Holtemöller O. (2019), Potential International Employment Effects of a Hard Brexit (Discussion Papers No. 4), Halle Institute for Economic Research, https://www.iwh-halle.de/fileadmin/user_upload/publications/iwh_discussion_papers/iwh-discussion-paper2019-04_Brautzsch_Holtemoeller.pdf, 03.07.2019.
Brücker H., Vallizadeh E. (2016), Brexit: Mögliche Folgen für die Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit und die Arbeitsmigration (Aktuelle Berichte No. 16), Institute for Employment Research, http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2016/aktueller_bericht_1616.pdf, 01.07.2019.
Busch B., Matthes J. (2016), Brexit – the economic impact: A meta-analysis, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/157171, 29.04.2019.
Conservative Party (2015), 2015 Conservative Party Manifesto, 14.04.2015, https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto2015, 19.06.2019.
Creasy S. (2019), MPs’ best quotes from the Brexit debate, 29.01.2019, https://www.theguard ian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/mps-best-quotes-from-the-brexit-debate, 09.07.2019.
Destatis (2018), Güterverzeichnis für Produktionsstatistiken, https://www.destatis.de/DE/Methoden/Klassifikationen/Gueter-Wirtschaftsklassifikationen/Downloads/gueterverzeichnis-3200201199004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4, 27.06.2019.
Destatis (2019), Brexit Monitor, https://www.destatis.de/Europa/DE/Thema/Brexit/Brexit_Aktuell.html?nn=240498#arbeitsmarkt, 30.06.2019.
Deutsche Börse Group (2018), The Brexit process and its impact on financial markets, Frankfurt/Main, https://deutsche-boerse.com/resource/blob/149080/69d3a700fcb63274fb25ba4d2c213f98/data/brexit-process-december2018.pdf, 04.07.2019.
DIHK (2019), The Impact of Brexit on German Businesses: Results of the IHK Business Survey: Going International 2019, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=2ahUKEwiqirDB1YDjAhVUiFwKHeXyBjcQFjADegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dihk.de%2Fressourcen%2Fdownloads%2Fbrexit-umfrage-02-19-eng.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3lpLkv2lHLICGrhqNVJd5H, 29.04.2019.
ECCG (2019), Der Brexit und seine Folgen für Verbraucher, 05.2019, https://www.evz.de/de/verbraucherthemen/der-brexit-und-seine-folgen-fuer-verbraucher/, 29.06.2019.
Electoral Commission (2016), EU referendum results, 23.06.2016, https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information, 19.06.2019.
European Commission (2018), Erasmus+ annual report 2017: Statistical annex. Erasmus+ programme annual report 2017, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, https://publications.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/519aa03d-1f0b-11e9-8d04-01-aa75ed71a1, 21.07.2019.
European Commission (2019a), ‘No-deal’ Brexit: European Commission takes stock of preparations ahead of the June European Council (Article 50), http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-2951_en.htm, 18.06.2019.
European Commission (2019b), Travelling between the UK and the EU in the the event of “no deal”, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/factsheet_1_travel_en_final.pdf, 20.07.2019.
European Commission (2019c), Consumer rights in the event of “no deal”, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/factsheet-consumer-rights-no-deal_en.pdf, 20.07.2019.
European Council (2015), European Council meeting (25 and 26 June 2015) – Conclusions (No. EUCO 22/15), https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/21717/euco-conclusions-25-26-june-2015.pdf, 19.06.2019.
European Council (2016), European Council meeting (18 and 19 February 2016) – Conclusions (No. EUCO 1/16), https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/21787/0216-euco-conclusions.pdf, 19.06.2019.
European Council (2017), The Article 50 notification letter (No. XT 20001/17), http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-20001-2017-INIT/en/pdf, 19.06.2019.
European Council (2019), Brexit: Timeline, 21.06.2019, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-uk-after-referendum/, 21.06.2019.
European Parliament (2019), 2019 European election results, 05.06.2019, https://election-results.eu/national-results/united-kingdom/2019-2024/, 17.07.2019.
Eurostat (2018), Unemployment – LFS adjusted series (une): Reference Metadata in Euro SDMX Metadata Structure (ESMS) Compiling agency: Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/une_esms.htm, 02.07.2019.
Eurostat (2019), Foreign direct investments, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/structural-business-statistics/global-value-chains/fdi, 02.07.2019.
Federal Agency for Civic Education (2019), Entwicklung des deutschen Außenhandels: Export, Import und Exportüberschuss in absoluten Zahlen, 1995 bis 2018, https://www.bpb.de/wissen/4OHFAY, 28.06.2019.
Federal Foreign Office (2019), Prepared for any eventuality – how the German Government is getting ready for Brexit, 16.04.2019, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/europa/Brexit/brexit-preparedness?openAccordionId=item-2208434-9-panel,%2030.09. 2019, 30.09.2019.
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (2019), Fachkräfte für Deutschland, https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Dossier/fachkraeftesicherung.html, 03.07.2019.
Federal Ministry of Finance (2009), Die Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise – Konjunktur und strukturpolitische Antworten ausgewählter Volkswirtschaften, https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Monatsberichte/2009/08/Artikel/analysen-und-berichte/b06-finanzkrise-antworten/finanzkrise-antworten.html;jsessionid=EC3188D3D347AF2B35A8710EC4F4C60C#doc38796bodyText2, 27.06.2019.
Felbermayr G., Gröschl J., Heiland I., Braml M., Steininger M. (2017), Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft, ifo Institut, https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Studien/oekonomische-effekte-eines-brexit-auf-die-deutschewirtschaft.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=6, 29.04.2019.
FT.com (2019), Brexit uncertainty is costing the UK dearly, 15.02.2019, https://www.ft.com/content/cb298576-3116-11e9-8744-e7016697f225, 12.07.2019.
GOV.UK (2013), EU speech at Bloomberg: Prime Minister David Cameron discussed the future of the European Union at Bloomberg, 23.01.2013, https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/euspeech-at-bloomberg, 19.06.2019.
GOV.UK (2015), EU reform: PM’s letter to President of the European Council Donald Tusk, 10.11.2015, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/475679/Donald_Tusk_letter.pdf, 19.06.2019.
GOV.UK (2016a), EU referendum, 24.06.2016, https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160817104546/https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/eu-referendum, 17.06.2019.
GOV.UK (2016b), EU referendum outcome: PM statement, 24 June 2016: Prime Minister David Cameron made a statement in Downing Street on the outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, 24.06.2016, https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160817104943/https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/eu-referendum-outcome-pmstatement-24-june-2016, 19.06.2019.
Government of the Netherlands (2019), Brexit: where do we stand?, https://www.government.nl/topics/brexit/brexit-where-do-we-stand, 18.06.2019.
Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG (2019), Brexit – Folgen für den Alltag und auf Reisen. https://www.hauck-aufhaeuser.com/fileadmin/News/190226_Brexit_Folgen.pdf, 29.06.2019.
HESA (2019), Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2017/18 – Where students come from and go to study, 17.01.2019, https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/17-01-2019/sb252-higher-education-student-statistics/location, 30.06.2019.
Hubble S., Bolton P. (2019), International and EU students in higher education in the UK FAQs, 20.03.2019, https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7976,29.06.2019.
Koszel B. (2018), Rola Niemiec w procesach decyzyjnych Unii Europejskiej w XXI wieku, Wydawnictwo Naukowe WNPiD UAM, Poznań.
KPMG (2017), Brexit basics: The Four Freedoms, https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2017/02/brexit-basics-the-four-freedoms.pdf, 17.06.2019.
Kraatz S. (2018), Free movement of workers, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/41/free-movement-of-workers, 01.07.2019.
Maciejewski M. (2018a), Free movement of goods, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/38/free-movement-of-goods, 01.07.2019.
Maciejewski M. (2018b), Freedom of establishment and freedom to provide services, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/40/freedom-of-establishment-and-freedom-to-provideservices, 01.07.2019.
Rakić D., Dessimirova D. (2019), Free movement of capital, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/39/free-movement-of-capital, 01.07.2019.
TEU (2012), 26.10.2012, Official Journal of the European Union, C 326, pp. 16–45.
TFEU (2012), 26.10.2012, Official Journal of the European Union, C 326, pp. 47–390.
Walker N. (2019), Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union, 23.05.2019, https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7960, 19.06.2019.
www.parliament.uk (2019a), Stella Creasy MP, https://www.parliament.uk/biographies/commons/stella-creasy/4088/biography, 09.07.2019.
www.parliament.uk (2019b), Votes and Proceedings, https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/commons/votes-and-proceedings/, 20.07.2019.
Zoega G. (2016), On the causes of Brexit: Regional differences in economic prosperity and voting behaviour, 01.09.2016, https://voxeu.org/article/brexit-economic-prosperity-and-voting-behaviour, 19.06.2019.