Defense Spending Key to Transforming Germany’s Security Policy

Abstract

Inadéquate defense spending has been a fundamental problem in German security policy for years. Priority has so far been given to a strategy that focuses on issues of di stribution and energy transition. For years, there has been a consensus in German society against increasing military spending.

The security policy turnaround of the SPD/Green/FDP government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Zeitenwende) included a significant increase in defense spending to 2% of GDP through a special Bundeswehr fund.

However, the German government intends to artificially increase defense spending from 2024. The author hypothesizes that the government is actually avoiding increasing defense spending in the face of growing energy, climate, and demographic challenges that require a covert approach to social spending and fiscal discipline.

The article outlines the process of reaching a cross-party political compromise agreement in favor of increasing defense spending in the initial phase of the Zeitenwende and analyzes the reasons for planning insufficient defense spending in the 2024 budget, which could trigger a drastic widening of the gap between actual spending and the spending necessary to meet the 2% of GDP indicator in the coming years. Beginning in 2027, defense spending must be realized at this level, as it is essential to maintain Germany’s position as a reliable partner in NATO and close relations with the United States.