Errors and aberrations, or the causes of Ryszard Grobelny’s defeat in the local government elections in Poznań in 2014

Abstract

This paper analyses the causes of Ryszard Grobelny’s defeat in the elections for the office of President of Poznań. It attempts to answer several questions: 1. how did Jacek Jaśkowiak manage to generate such an enormous support over such a short time? 2. what errors did Ryszard Grobelny commit that, after sixteen years, Poznanians largely rejected their longstanding president?, and 3. can some moments of the campaign be considered decisive for its final outcome, and what were the main errors Ryszard Grobelny committed in this campaign? A significant part of the study is devoted to an analysis of the results of the exit poll conducted for WTK (Wielkopolska Cable TV).