Abstrakt
Literatura przedmiotu dotycząca działań mających na celu zapobieganie konfliktom oferuje dwa wyjaśnienia dlaczego ocena wpływu stron trzecich w zakresie zarządzania kryzysowego i rozwiązywania konfliktów poprzez mediacje tak bardzo różni się. Pierwsze wyjaśnienie uzależnia pozytywny wynik mediacji w wojnach domowych od specyficznych cech konfliktu, natomiast drugie wyjaśnienie od umiejętności i doświadczenia mediatora oraz od strategii mediacji zastosowanych w procesie rozwiązywania konfliktu pomiędzy stronami. Celem badań jest ustalenie jakie czynniki w przedstawionych podejściach mają decydujący wpływ na to, że niektóre wysiłki mediatorów kończą się sukcesem a niektóre nie. Badania zostały przeprowadzone na próbie 581 mediacji w wojnach domowych w latach 1945–2004 i potwierdziły nasze założenia dotyczące strategii mediacji. Analiza pokazuje, że mediatorzy, którzy przejmują inicjatywę i sugerują rozwiązania (directive mediation strategies), odnoszą większy sukces w rozwiązaniu konfliktu niż mediatorzy którzy stosują mediacje facylitatywne.
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