KONFLIKTY ZBROJNE W AFRYCE: PAŃSTWA KRUCHE I ROSNĄCA NIESTABILNOŚĆ

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Jeroen Van den Bosch
Jacek Raubo

Abstrakt

W pierwszej części artykułu zaprezentowano przegląd wybranych konfliktów zbrojnych w Afryce Subsaharyjskiej, które toczyły się lub wybuchły ponownie w 2016 r. Autor (JVdB) postawił sobie za cel wskazanie przyczyn i charakteru brutalnych sporów, przede wszystkim poprzez odwołanie się do prac C. T. Call`a. Dążąc tym samym do rozpatrzenia dylematów związanych z “państwami upadłymi”, analizy problemu legitymizacji władzy, czy też poprzez określenie głównych możliwości oraz dysfunkcji z zakresu bezpieczeństwa, w szczegółowo rozpatrywanych przypadkach. Ponadto, Autor sformułował także scenariusze, starając się wywnioskować jak omawiane konflikty mogą ewoluować zarówno w perspektywie krótko jak i średnioterminowej. Próbując równocześnie odpowiedzieć na pytanie, które czynniki (strukturalne) zdominują ogólne tendencje zmian w regionie. W drugiej części artykułu (przez JR) postawiono sobie cel jakim jest przedstawienie uwarunkowań w zakresie aktywności najważniejszych organizacji terrorystycznych w Afryce. Ze szczególnym podkreśleniem znaczenia rejonu północno-wschodniego oraz północno-zachodniego tego kontynentu. Stąd wstępne skupienie uwagi na obszarze Somalii, która jako państwo słabe pozostaje pod wzmożonym wpływem tamtejszej dżihadystycznej organizacji Asz Szabaab, co więcej organizacji o dużym potencjale w zakresie wzrostu możliwości działania w kolejnych latach. Następnie dokonane zostało zarysowanie sytuacji w przypadku Egiptu, uwzględniając w głównej mierze aktywność tzw. Państwa Islamskiego na Synaju. Wskazano także na skomplikowaną sytuację wewnętrzną w Libii, gdzie jednak wbrew pozorom zagrożenie terrorystyczne było zbyt mocno pozycjonowane, chociażby względem wewnętrznego konfliktu pomiędzy zróżnicowanymi stronnictwami politycznymi. Finalnie spróbowano dokonać zobrazowania obecnej aktywności terrorystycznej w rejonie Mali, podkreślając znaczenie AQIM oraz w rejonie Nigerii, gdzie funkcjonuje Boko Haram.

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Jak cytować
Van den Bosch, J., & Raubo, J. (2017). KONFLIKTY ZBROJNE W AFRYCE: PAŃSTWA KRUCHE I ROSNĄCA NIESTABILNOŚĆ. Przegląd Strategiczny, (10), 445-480. https://doi.org/10.14746/ps.2017.1.24
Dział
Strategiczny przegląd bezpieczeństwa na świecie
Biogramy autorów

Jeroen Van den Bosch, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań

started his studies at the Catholic University of Leuven (KUL), Belgium. He first studied Slavonic studies (Area Studies), before moving on to the realm of international relations (Political & Social Sciences). During this time he studied in Odessa, Irkutsk (IGLU, Russian Federation), Cracow (Jagiellonian University), Moscow (Pushkin Institute) and Poznań (Adam Mickiewicz University). He obtained both master degrees at the KUL in 2008 and 2010. After his studies he remained two years at AMU as an independent researcher before starting this doctoral studies. He is currently finalizing his PhD dissertation: Personal Rule in Sub Saharan Africa: The Impact of Personalism on Regime Transitions after the Cold War at the department of international relations. His research fields cover dictatorships, democratization, political regimes, Sub Saharan Africa and Central Asia. He is also editor-in-chief of the political science journal: “R/evolutions: Global Trends & Regional Issues” (revjournal.org).

Jacek Raubo, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań

PhD (doctoral dissertation titled Decision making process in the US defense policy), an analyst in international security and defense issues. He completed his MA studies in political science, specializing in international political relations, at the Faculty of Political Science and Journalism at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań. In his present research and scientific work, he specializes in observing various aspects of contemporary international security and selected aspects of internal security. His interests are primarily connected with the Middle East and North-East Africa, oscillating around the issues of special forces, intelligence, counterterrorism, and strategic cross-border threats for security. Author of scientific and journalist articles on international relations and security as well as participant of scientific conferences in Poland and abroad. Member of the Polish Society of Political Science and the Polish Society for International Studies. Currently he works as a columnist for the Warsaw internet portal Defence24.pl, and as a lecturer at the Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań.

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