KONFLIKTY ZBROJNE W SYRII I JEMENIE: ROZWÓJ, KONSEKWENCJE I MOŻLIWE SCENARIUSZE

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Przemysław Osiewicz

Abstrakt

Głównym celem niniejszego artykułu jest szczegółowa analiza ról odgrywanych przez wybranych aktorów państwowych w dwóch trwających konfliktach bliskowschodnich – w Syrii oraz Jemenie. Ramy czasowe obejmują okres od marca 2015 do maja 2017 roku. Rok 2015 był rokiem szczególnym, w trakcie którego rozpoczęła się rosyjska interwencja zbrojna w Syrii, a konflikt w Jemenie został umiędzynarodowiony. Analiza zaangażowania aktorów państwowych przeprowadzona została na dwóch poziomach: regionalnym oraz globalnym. Chociaż wymiar globalny można zaobserwować w obu przypadkach, to jednak wydaje się on być bardziej zauważalny w przypadku Syrii, ze względu na większe zaangażowanie ze strony mocarstw (Stany Zjednoczone, Federacja Rosyjska). Największe ograniczenie wszelkich inicjatyw pokojowych w regionie Bliskiego Wschodu stanowi bardzo niski poziom instytucjonalizacji stosunków międzynarodowych. Z tego powodu pokojowe rozwiązywanie konfliktów w regionie wymaga zaangażowania ze strony aktorów spoza Bliskiego Wschodu, którzy w sposób bezpośredni lub pośredni mogą wywierać presję na aktorów regionalnych. Podstawę źródłową analizy stanowią wybrane dokumenty, monografie, artykuły naukowe, raporty oraz ekspertyzy.

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Dział
Strategiczny przegląd bezpieczeństwa na świecie
Biogram autora

Przemysław Osiewicz, Georgetown University, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań

FULBRIGHT Senior Award Visiting Scholar at Georgetown University, Washington D.C. (2016–17). A guest contributor of the Middle East Institute, Washington D.C. Secretary of Research Committee RC-18 of the International Political Science Association (IPSA). Member of the International Studies Association (ISA). Member of Polish Political Science Association. Board member of Polish International Relations Association (Poznań) and Asia&Pacific Association. Visiting lecturer of universities in the United States, Cyprus, Turkey, Iran, and Taiwan. Author and co-author of four monographs and over 70 book chapters and articles in international relations and political science.

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