The War in Ukraine and the Concept of a Permanent Base of the US Armed Forces in Poland

Abstract

The United States is the most important external guarantor of Poland’s security. For this reason, the Polish authorities have been seeking the closest possible allied relations with the USA for years, including its military presence on Polish territory. The outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine confirmed that the threat from Russia still exists and that it is necessary to increase deterrence and defense on NATO’s eastern flank. The aim of this article is to analyze and assess the possibility of locating a permanent base of the US Armed Forces in Poland in the context of the war in Ukraine. The hypothesis assumes that with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the chance of permanent US military stationing in Poland has increased. We are currently observing a shift in the center of gravity of European security from Western Europe to Central and Eastern Europe. Due to Poland’s close relations with the US, increasing military potential, and a decisive response to the war in Ukraine, the American authorities perceive Poland as an increasingly important pillar of European security. The prevailing view among American scientists and experts is that after the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine, the permanent stationing of US troops in Poland has become more realistic. However, such a decision will probably not be made during the war, as it could negatively affect its course. The final decision on this issue will depend largely on how the war in Ukraine ends. In addition, Poland must convince the US that it can competently bear responsibility for the security of NATO’s eastern flank. As part of the research, interviews were conducted with American scientists and experts. The article also used the method of content analysis of text sources.