Abstract
This article examines geopolitical, geoeconomical and geostrategical tendencies, vulnerabilities, risks and threats in theWider Black Sea Area. The research reveals the existence of a „Soft War” opposing the U.S. and E.U. on one side to the Russian Federation and its allies from Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the other side, which can easily become the Second ColdWar. It involves access to energy resources and distribution, the Russian efforts to maintain and extend its hegemony using regional instability, secessionist enclaves, sabotage and paramilitary violence, terrorism and criminality. The article also examinesWestern regional interests. For many centuries, from a geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic point of view, the Black Sea and Balkan area’s importance was based mainly on the region’s role as a point of intersection between great powers that played a critical role in Europe’s history. This area was a link and a frontier, a buffer zone and a transit corridor, betweenWest and East or North and South. The region represents a point of linkage for commercial nets and areas rich in energy resources, but also a black hole in the Western historical consciousness. In the political environment the area is part of the wider Black Sea area and includes the Euro-Asian energy corridor linking the Euro-Atlantic system with Caspian energy supplies. Today the Black Sea and Balkan area is characterized by transformations caused by separation from communism and the Soviet sphere of influence, and by transition from isolation to the values of democracy and free trade. Some of the states from this region are now NATO and European Union members, and others are trying to become eligible by fulfilling NATO and E.U. conditions. At the same time, Russia is trying to build a politico-military and economic block in order to regain its position as a major regional player and a great world power.
References
Abkhazia: Deepening Independence, „Europe Report” 2010, No. 202.
Alsarhan M. I., Turkish-Israeli Regional Cooperation During 1990s, UASWC Strategy Research Paper, 7 April 2003.
Asmus R. D., Jackson B. P., The Black Sea and the Frontiers of Freedom. Towards a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy, „Policy Review”, June & July 2004.
Bacik G., The Limits of an Alliance: Turkish-Israeli Relations Revisited, „Arab Studies Quarterly”, Summer 2001, Vol. 23, No. 3.
Barysch K., Turkey’s role in European energy security, CER, London, December 2007.
Berman I., Israel, India, and Turkey: Triple Entente?, „Middle East Quarterly”, Fall 2002.
Binay M., The Great Game on Oil and Power in Transcaucasia and Eurasia, http://www.tur-kiye.net/sota/mbinay1.html (16.03.2009).
Bir Ç., M. Sherman, Formula for Stability: Turkey Plus Israel, „The Middle East Quarterly”, Fall 2002.
Blank S., Iran’s Nuclear Program Modifies Turkish Strategy and Policy, 4.05.2006 issue of the CACI Analyst.
Bolukbasi S., Behind the Turkish-Israeli Alliance: A Turkish View, „Journal of Palestine Studies” 1999, Vol. 29, No. 1.
Bordonaro F., Bulgaria, Romania and the Changing Structure of the Black Sea’s Geopolitics, PINR, 20 May 2005.
Ciobanu C., NATO/EU Enlargement: Moldova and the „Frozen and Forgotten” Conflicts In Post-Soviet States, Washington, DC, July 22, 2004.
Cohen A., Irwin C., US Strategy in the Black Sea Region, The Heritage Foundation Executive Summary Backgrounder 2006, No. 1990.
Donaj Ł., GUUAM jako przykład wielowektorowości w ukraińskiej polityce, w: Europa Środkowo-Wschodnia w procesie globalizacji i integracji, red. T. Wallas, Słubice 2003.
Donaj Ł., Wspólna Przestrzeń Gospodarcza jako kolejna inicjatywa neoimperialnej polityki Federacji Rosyjskiej, w: Świat współczesny. Wyzwania, zagrożenia i współzależności w procesie budowy nowego porządku międzynarodowego, red. W. Malendowski, Poznań 2008.
EU – Ukraine: A Turning Point In 2004, Institute for Security Studies Occasional Papers, November 2003, No. 47; W. Jacoby, The Enlargement of European Union and NATO: Ordering from the Menu in Central Europe, Cambridge 2004.
Europe on the Black Sea Shore: Opportunities and Challenges for Bulgaria, ed. K. Y. Nikolov, Sofia, June–November 2007.
Georgia and Russia: Clashing Over Abkhazia, Europe Report N°193, 5 June 2008.
Georgia’s South Ossetia Conflict: Make Haste Slowly, „Europe Report” N° 183, 7 June 2007.
Grochmalski P., Wojna w Czeczenii, w: Spory i konflikty międzynarodowe. Aspekty prawne i polityczne, red. Malendowski W., Wrocław 2000.
Hale W., Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf Crisis, „International Affairs” 1992, Vol. 68, No. 4.
Herolf G., Values, Interests and Geopolitical Realities: What Matters in Euro-Atlantic Security Policy?, w: Comparing the Baltic and Black Sea Regions: Regional Security, Energy Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Proceedings of a conference in Kyiv, 24 April 2007, eds. J. Hedenskog, V. Lavrenyuk.
Inbar E., Regional Implications of the Israeli-Turkish Strategic Partnership, „Middle East Review of International Affairs”, Summer 2001, Vol. 5, No. 2.
Jastrzębski P., Konflikt abchaski, w: Spory i konflikty międzynarodowe. Aspekty prawne i polityczne, red. W. Malendowski, Wrocław 2000.
Kibaroğlu M., Turkey and Israel Strategize, „Middle East Quarterly”, Winter 2002, Vol. IX, No. 1.
Konończuk W., Fiasko integracji. WNP i inne organizacje międzynarodowe na obszarze post-radzieckim 1991–2006, „Prace OSW” 2007, nr 26.
Lada L., Roslycki M., Little Sout Ossetia: Great Opportunities, http://www.harvard-bssp.org/bssp/publications.
Larrabee S., Turkey Rediscovers the Middle East, „Foreign Affairs”, Jul/Aug 2007, Vol. 86, Issue 4, http://150.254.100.169/han/ForeignAffairs4/web.ebscohost.com.
Levchenko A., Ukraine in the Black Sea and Caspian Regions, http://www.isn.ethz.ch (24.03.2209).
Makarychev A. S., Russia’s Energy Policy Between Security and Transparency, PONARS Memo No. 425, December 2006.
Monaghan A., Montanaro-Jankovski L., EU-Russia energy relations: the need for active engagement, EPC Issue Paper No. 45, March 2006.
Müftüler-Bac M., Turkey and Israel: an evolving partnership, „Ariel Center for Policy Research, Policy Paper” 1998, No. 47.
Nichol J., Russia-Georgia Conflict in South Ossetia: Context and Implications for U.S. Interests, CSR Report for Congress, updated October 24, 2008.
O’Loughlin J., Kolossov V., Tchepalyga A., National Construction, Territorial Separatism and Post-Soviet Geopolitics: The Example of the Transdniester Moldovan Republic.
Osiewicz P., Pokojowa regulacja kwestii cypryjskiej. Aspekty prawne i polityczne, Toruń 2008.
Osiewicz P., Wpływ Turcji na bezpieczeństwo energetyczne Unii Europejskiej, w: Świat współczesny. Wyzwania, zagrożenia i współzależności w procesie budowy nowego porządku międzynarodowego, red. W. Malendowski, Poznań 2008.
Pipes D., [Turkey and Israel:] The Birth of a New Middle East Alliance, „Washington Times”, January 5, 1998.
Pipes D., A New Axis: The Emerging Turkish-Israeli Entente, „National Interest”, Winter 1997/98.
Riley A., The Coming of the Russian Gas Deficit: Con-sequences and Solutions, CEPS Policy Briefs, issue 112/2006.
Saunders P. J., Russian Energy and European Security. A Transatlantic Dialogue, The Nixon Center, February 2008.
Sayari S., Turkey and the Middle East in the 1990s, „Journal of Palestine Studies” Spring 1997, Vol. 26, No. 3.
Sever A., Turkey and the Syrian-Israeli Peace Talks in the 1990s, MERIA 2001, Vol. 5, No. 3.
South Ossetia: Burden of Recognition, „Europe Report” 2010, No. 205.
Stinga A., European Security in the Wider Black Sea Area, USAWC Strategy Research Project, 12 March 2007.
Suleymanov E., Azerbaijan: The Wider Black Sea’s Caspian Keystone, w: Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea, ed. R. D. Asmus, Washington 2006.
Tadevosyan A., Armenia – Between the Wider Black Sea Region and the Greater Middle East, w: Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea, ed. R. D. Asmus, Washington 2006.
The EU-Russian energy dialogue: Europe’s future energy security, ed. P. Aalto, 2008.
Traktat Północnoatlantycki, sporządzony w Waszyngtonie 4 kwietnia 1949 r., Dz. U. z 19 października 2000, Nr 87, poz. 970.
Valinakis Y., The Black Sea Region: Challenges and Opportunities for Europe, „Chaillot Pa-per” July 1999, No. 36.
Wahlbäck K., Patterns of Security in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea Regions: Looking Back and Glancing Forward, w: Comparing the Baltic and Black Sea Regions: Regional Security, Energy Secu-rity nad Euro-Atlantic Integration. Proceedings of a conference in Kyiv, eds. J. Hedenskog, V. Lavre-nyuk, 24 April 2007.
Weinstein M. A., U.S. Troop Redeployment: Rational Adjustment to an Altered Threat Environment, PINR, 1 September 2004.
Woehrel S., Russian Energy Policy Toward Neighboring Countries, September 2, 2009.
Woźniczak A., Wygrana wojna i przegrany pokój. Konflikt rosyjsko-czeczeński w latach 1994–1999, w: Współczesne spory i konflikty międzynarodowe. Studia przypadków, red. A. Potyrała, Poznań 2007.
Żakowska K., Spory na linii Rosja–Gruzja, w: Współczesne spory i konflikty międzynarodowe. Studia przypadków, red. A. Potyrała, Poznań 2007.
License
Articles published in "Przegląd Strategiczny" are distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. License (CC BY 4.0). They may be copied, redistributed and shared only if appropriate credit is given.