Challenges in Türkiye’s Relations With the European Union

Abstract

SummaryThis publication examines the key challenges in Türkiye’s relations with the European Union. To this end, it explores the specific character of these relations, dividing the analysis into two distinct periods: 2002–2013 and 2014–2025. This chronological framework makes it possible to trace the evolution of mutual relations and to identify their principal determinants. The study also seeks to outline potential prospects for the future of Türkiye–EU relations. The article is based on several core assumptions. Firstly, Türkiye’s extensive economic and trade ties with the European Union have created a structural dependence on its Western partner – an interdependence that became particularly evident during the prolonged currency crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, the adoption of anti-Western rhetoric and the articulation of new demands towards the European Union have served as instruments of political and econo-mic leverage for the Turkish authorities, while simultaneously reinforcing President Erdoğan’s image, particularly among the conservative electorate. Thirdly, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2022 reaffirmed the strategic importance of relations between Türkiye and the European Union. The ensuing geopolitical realities provided a renewed platform for dialogue and potential cooperation, while also strengthening Türkiye’s position in discussions with the Union as a prospective partner in shaping Europe’s emerging security and defence architecture.