The Risk of Russia Using Nuclear Weapons Due to the War in Ukraine from the American Perspective

Abstract

The paper’s subject is the risk of using nuclear weapons by Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine. The aim is to analyze and evaluate such a possibility from the American perspective. The main research problem is whether, according to American scholars and experts, is it realistic for Russia to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or NATO countries? From the perspective of the West, such a possibility cannot be ruled out, but the great majority of researchers and analysts believe that the risk is very small. If this happens, it will likely be the use of tactical nuclear weapons against military targets in Ukraine. It is less likely that tactical nuclear weapons will be launched against elements of the infrastructure used to transport weapons from the West to Ukraine, located in the countries of NATO’s eastern flank. The research used interviews conducted by the author in Washington and New York and the expertise of American think tanks. The analysis was carried out from the perspective of the paradigm of offensive neorealism.