Keywords
economic integration
euro area
monetary policy
price stability
How to Cite
Abstract
The primary aim of this study was to assess the degree of Poland’s convergence in terms of price stability, both at the stage of the country’s candidacy to the euro area and in relation to the euro convergence criteria (the so-called Maastricht criteria), and in the broader context of the ECB’s unified monetary policy. The time frame for this study covers the period of 2004– 2017. The starting point marks Poland’s accession to the EU, which is a pre-requisite for application to access the euro area. The closing time was chosen due to the availability of data, mainly from the Eurostat database. This was studied in view of the critical analysis of methodology and the method used to establish the Maastricht criterion for the dynamics of the general price level. The methodology of determining the inflation criterion is flawed and not matched to today’s economic conditions, including the definition of price stability applied in the practice of central banking, as well as in the context of the phenomenon of deflation commonly occurring in the last decade. As a consequence, the value of the criterion for a candidate country may turn out to be very low, and may unjustifiably increase the costs of accession to the euro area, also in the long-term perspective. Such a problem should be taken into account in the discussion on Poland’s accession to the euro area, which is usually of a political, as well as social and economic nature. This economic aspect, however, should be key in practice.
References
Akerlof G. A., Dickens W. T., Perry G. L. (1996), The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1.
Akerlof G. A., Dickens W. T., Perry G. L. (2000), Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Optimal Rates of Inflation and Unemployment, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1.
Aldasoro J. I., Zdarek V. (2009), Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area and their Determinants – an empirical view, William Davidson Institute Working Paper, no. 958, April.
Błaszczyk P. (2010), Stabilność cen – sposoby definicji oraz konsekwencje dla polityki pieniężnej, Materiały i Studia NBP, no. 249.
Błaszczyk P. (2014), Wybrane problemy definicji stabilności cen w odniesieniu do strefy euro in: Gospodarka w warunkach integracji europejskiej, eds. D. J. Mierzejewski, J. Polcyn, Państwowa Wyższa Szkoła Zawodowa w Pile, Piła, pp. 13–24.
Błaszczyk P. (2015), Post-crisis macroeconomic comparative assessment of the Eurozone member states with the use of an improved misery index, “Journal of Business & Economic Policy,” no. 3.
Błaszczyk P. (2016), Price Level Dynamics Differentiation as a Problem of Definition of Price Stability in the Euro Area, “Business Research Review,” vol. 2, no. 1.
Chmielewski T. (2003), Od kursu płynnego do unii monetarnej. Znaczenie efektu Balassy-Samuelsona dla polskiej polityki pieniężnej, “Materiały i Studia NBP,” no. 163.
Cukrowski J. (2001), Renta emisyjna jako źródło finansowania budżetu państwa, CASE, Warszawa.
De Grauwe P. (2003), Unia walutowa. Funkcjonowanie i wyzwania, PWE, Warszawa.
Devicienti F. (2004), Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Italy: Evidence and Consequences, LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Paper, no. 20.
ECB (2003), Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of its Monetary Policy Strategy, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/monetarypolicystrategyreview_backgrounden, 29.07.2018.
Ekberg J. (2002), Nominal Wage Rigidity on the Swedish Labor Market, Mimeo, Stockholm School of Economics.
Fehr E., Goette L. (2000), Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity, “Journal of Monetary Economics,” vol. 52 no. 2005.
Friedman B. L. (red.), Solow R. M., Taylor J. B. (2002), Inflacja, bezrobocie a polityka monetarna, CeDeWu, Warszawa.
IMF, International Monetary Fund (1999), Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low Inflation, World Economic Outlook, October.
Keynes J. M. (2003), Ogólna teoria zatrudnienia, procentu i pieniądza, PWN, Warszawa.
Kilian L., Manganelli S. (2007), Quantifying the Risk of Deflation, “Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,” vol. 39, nos. 2–3.
Kimura T., Ueda K. (1997), Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Japan: Is Price Stability Costly?, Bank of Japan Working Paper.
Knoppik C., Beissinger T. (2001), How Rigid are Nominal Wages? Evidence and Implications for Germany, “Scandinavian Journal of Monetary Economics,” no. 105.
Kumar M. S., Baig T., Decressin J., Faulkner-MacDonagh C., Feyzioglu T. (2003), Deflation. Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options, International Monetary Fund, Occasional Paper, no. 221.
Kwiatkowski E. (2002), Bezrobocie. Podstawy teoretyczne, PWN, Warszawa.
Lebow D. E., Saks R. E., Wilson B. A. (2003), Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity. Evidence from the Employment Cost Index, “Advances in Macroeconomics,” vol. 3.
Molle W. (2000), Ekonomika integracji europejskiej. Teoria, praktyka, polityka, Fundacja Gospodarcza, Gdańsk.
Moretti L. (2014), Determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, CFS Working Paper Series, no. 451, Center for Financial Studies.
NBP (2009), Raport na temat pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej, Warszawa.
Nickell S. J., Quintini G. (2003), Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Rate of Inflation, “Mimeo. The Economic Journal,” no. 113.
Ochryniuk M., Rogut A. (2010), Konwergencja nominalna w strefie euro. Implikacje dla Polski, NBP, https://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/o_euro/konwergencja_nominalna.pdf. 30.07.2018.
Pronobis M. (2008), Polska w strefie euro, C.H. Beck, Warszawa. Social Security Administration (1996), The Boskin Commission Report, Toward a More Accurate Measure of the Cost of Living, https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/boskinrpt.html (30.01.2018)
Svensson L. E. O. (2000), How should monetary policy be conducted in an area of price stability?, NBER Working Paper, no. 7516.
Szeląg K. (1998), Wprowadzenie euro – geneza, kluczowe decyzje, aspekty prawne, „Bank i Kredyt,” no. 10.
Walkowski M. (2012), Unia Europejska – rozpad czy powrót do równowagi makroekonomicznej i finansowej? Rozważania na temat kryzysu w strefie euro z perspektywy europejskiej i światowej, „Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne,” no. 3.
Weber A. A., Beck G. W. (2005), Price Stability, Inflation Convergence and Diversity in EMU: Does One Size Fit All?, Center for Financial Studies, no. 2005/30.
Wojtyna A. (2001), Skuteczność polityki pieniężnej w warunkach niskiej inflacji: problem zerowej granicy nominalnych stóp procentowych, „Bank i Kredyt,” no. 7.
Wojtyna A. (2004), Szkice o polityce pieniężnej, PWE, Warszawa.
Wójcik C. (2008), Integracja ze strefą euro. Teoretyczne i praktyczne aspekty konwergencji, PWN, Warszawa.
Wynne M., Rodriguez-Palenzuela D. (2002), Measurement Bias in the HICP: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper, no. 206.
Zombirt J. (2008), Mechanizmy rynku wewnętrznego Unii Europejskiej, Difin, Warszawa.
Zwierzchlewski S. (2015), Stabilność unii walutowej, Wydawnictwo A. Marszałek, Toruń.
License