Keywords
economic growth
regions
GDP
Poland
Ukraine
How to Cite
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to analyse the trends and assess the impact of the dynamics of the average monthly salary on the economic growth in the regions of Poland and Ukraine, measured by GDP per capita in 2004–2019/2020. To ensure comparability, the data on average monthly salary and GDP per capita were converted into international dollars, according to the World Bank indicators. Regression models were developed for each of the Polish and Ukrainian regions, guided by maximising the coefficient of determination. Moreover, elasticity indices of GDP per capita changes under the influence of average monthly wages were calculated.
The results of the study showed that on average in Poland and in almost all its regions (except Lubuskie and Świętokrzyskie) an increase in average monthly wages has a very positive effect on GDP per capita growth. The situation in Ukraine is less optimistic. In the two regions where the aggression of the Russian Federation began in 2014 (Donetsk and Luhansk regions), the correlation between these indicators is very low. Also, in the vast majority of Ukrainian regions, the change in GDP per capita is inelastic to the change in average monthly wages. This may be due to the raw material orientation of exports and the small number of high-tech industries producing products with a high share of value added, where wage growth is important. Analysis of the dynamics of GDP per capita and average monthly wages showed that Ukraine only in 2018–2019 reached the value of these indicators at the level of those available to Poland when it joined the European Union in 2004.
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