Directions and intensity of international migration for permanent residence in Poland in 2019–2022

Abstract

The conducted research shows that Poland, in the period of threats, whether it is the Covid-19 pandemic, or political unrest related to the imminent war in Ukraine, but also decisions resulting from the migration crisis or Great Britain’s exit from the European Union, transforms from an emigration country into immigration state. Not all regions in Poland are subject to this tendency, and so the Opolskie and Śląskie voivodships have maintained an emigration character for decades. The largest stream of immigration for permanent residence is directed to two voivodeships: Mazowieckie and Małopolskie (30% in total), followed by Śląskie and Dolnośląskie (20% in total). In the case of emigration movements, the following voivodeships stood out with the highest level of departures for permanent residence: Małopolskie, Dolnośląskie and Opolskie. As a consequence, the most favorable positive balance of foreign migrations for permanent residence in the entire period under review occurred in the Mazowieckie voivodship, exceeding the balance in the Małopolskie voivodship more than three times. The negative migration balance with the highest intensity occurred in Upper Silesia. However, as a result of these turbulences, the net migration in almost all regions has decreased. The strongest directions of migration for permanent residence changed in individual regions. Western regions in Poland maintained the highest level of immigration from Germany throughout the analyzed period, Podlasie from Belarus, and Mazowsze from Ukraine. Other regions with initially a dominant direction of immigration from Great Britain began to increasingly reflect this position on immigration from Ukraine.

Regions of Poland were more stable in terms of emigration. Departures for permanent residence according to the first country of emigration divided Poland into regions with dominant emigration to two countries: Germany and Great Britain. In the western regions of Poland, departures to Germany dominated, and in the central and eastern regions to Great Britain. A certain difference characterized Małopolska, as emigration from this region was mostly directed to the United States in 2019, and to Austria in 2020–2021.

As a consequence, specific migration trends were visible in net foreign migrations for permanent residence by destination. Among the immigration countries in 2019, Ukraine was in first place in eight voivodships, Great Britain in seven, and Belarus in one – Podlaskie Voivodeship, where this direction remained unchanged throughout the period under review. In 2020, only two voivodships (Świętokrzyskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie) had the highest immigration balance from Great Britain, and the remaining regions from Ukraine, in the following years all regions had this positive balance in the first place from Ukraine (with the exception of the aforementioned Podlaskie voivodship). The negative balance and emigration destinations were more differentiated regionally and over time. The Śląskie and Opolskie voivodeships invariably remained in the sphere of influence of Germany and throughout the period under study it was the dominant direction of emigration, just like from the Mazowieckie voivodship – Switzerland. In addition, the direction to Germany was dominant in almost all western and northern Poland, including the Warmińsko-Mazurskie Voivodeship. The negative migration balance in the first place with the United States was shown mainly by the south-eastern voivodeships (Lubelskie, Podkarpackie and Małopolskie). In 2022, the tendency to emigrate to Great Britain increased and as many as 5 regions were dominated by this direction.

Relationships and migration preferences in individual regions of Poland do not always reflect national trends. Regional specificity, border proximity, or cultural and social connections, and in the case of national centers such as the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, trends in the global economy, have as strong an impact on the formation of migration directions as situations related to threats, in any form, could occur.