Estimating the Demographic Potential of Ongoing and Planned Housing Investments: The Case of Rokietnica Municipality in Poznań County

Abstract

Territorial governance in suburban areas, particularly in the context of intensive residential development, requires continuous monitoring of demographic and spatial processes. This article presents a method for estimating the demographic potential of ongoing and planned housing investments, utilizing data from the General Office of Building Control and waste management declarations. The case study focuses on the Rokietnica municipality in Poznań County, which has experienced significant population growth in recent decades due to dynamic suburbanization. The analysis results indicate strong correlations between the number of new housing units and the increase in registrations, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed method in forecasting demographic changes. Despite challenges related to data quality and estimating the timing of investment completion, this method can serve as a valuable tool for local authorities and planners, enabling better alignment of social and technical infrastructure development plans with actual population needs. The analysis shows that the estimated demographic potential of new housing investments in Rokietnica is comparable to the number of registrations over the past five years, suggesting that the current level of construction activity is sufficient to maintain the existing population growth rate. The findings of this article can serve as a basis for more precise spatial planning and optimization of decisions regarding local infrastructure development.