International migration outflows among secondary-school graduates: evidence from the Lubelskie Region (Poland)

Abstract

The aim of the article is to identify and assess the intensity, selectivity, and destinations of post-secondary school international migration, which has so far been poorly recognized. The authors used a unique dataset from five editions of census-type surveys tracking the mobility of secondary school graduates in Lublin (Poland), conducted annually between 2016 and 2020, which provided information on the international migration patterns of 572 individuals. The article examines the scale and structure of both student and economic migration.

The international migration rate among graduates was 3.4%, with nearly half of migrated individuals studying at Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). The migration rate remained relatively stable during the studied period of 2016–2020, including the pandemic year of 2020. The selectivity of migration was assessed using structural indicators and logit models. Higher mobility was confirmed among women (especially in student migration) and graduates of technical schools (particularly in economic migration). The likelihood of student migration was significantly increased by obtaining an International Baccalaureate diploma, and graduates with higher final exam scores also displayed a greater propensity for migration. The determinants of economic migration were found to be different: the risk of migration was higher for those with lower exam scores or those who did not take (or were not eligible to take) the exam.

The research shows that fields of study chosen by migrants differed from those selected by their peers in Poland. Fields such as business, administration and law, humanities and arts, and natural sciences and mathematics were relatively more popular abroad, whereas engineering, industry, construction, services, education, and agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and veterinary sciences were less popular.

The United Kingdom was the most popular destination regarding both student and labor migration; however, its popularity significantly declined over the study period. What is more, the consequences of Brexit appear to have a much stronger impact on post-secondary migrations than on total permanent emigrations reported by Statistics Poland (GUS). Considering student migration, young individuals tend to choose HEIs ranked higher in the Shanghai Ranking than top Polish universities, though only a small number of graduates began studies at institutions ranked in the top 100. Both the decision on fields of study and university selection align with the findings of human capital theory and sociological theories of migration. Interviews with talented youth provided further insights into the motives behind their mobility, which included a belief in the superiority of Western education systems over the Polish one, a desire for life change, and the wish to experience a different lifestyle from that in Poland. The level of economic development of their home city or region had little influence on their decisions. Overall, this student migration appears to be primarily driven by pull factors associated with the destination area, while push factors specific to the home region play a minimal role. In the case of economic migration, on the other hand, the situation in the labor market of the home region appears to play a significant role.