Patterns of Demographic Change in the Wielkopolska Voivodeship, 2002–2024

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of population changes in the Wielkopolskie Voivodeship and their spatial patterns, which occurred between 2002 and 2024. The study focused on the age structure of the population and factors contributing to population changes during this period in the voivodeship’s counties and municipalities. Selected descriptive and multivariate statistical tools were used in the study (including the Ward method). Spatial autocorrelation was examined for selected demographic indicators. A typology of factors contributing to population changes during the study period was also developed. The analysis was based on statistical data from Statistics Poland’s publications. Between 2002 and 2024, the demographic situation in Wielkopolskie was relatively favorable compared to most other voivodeships, which was due to, among other things, one of the highest fertility rates, a positive migration balance, and a slightly lower level of demographic aging. Over the next decade, the voivodeship’s population is expected to decline. During the investigated period, a shift in spatial patterns in population processes occurred. At the beginning of the 21st century, demographically younger areas were located primarily in the northern and central parts of the region, while Poznań and the outskirts of the southeastern part of the voivodeship were among the oldest. In 2024, the least favorable demographic situation was observed in cities and municipalities located on the outskirts, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the voivodeship (in the case of many of them, actual population decline occurred annually). However, a relatively more favorable demographic situation, i.e., with the lowest demographic aging and population growth (often annual, resulting primarily from migration, but in many cases also from natural increase), was observed in rural municipalities located around larger cities (especially Poznań).