The demand for new residential development according to the master plan, demographic and spatial processes, and current spatial planning practice

Abstract

The article presents a series of original basic research focused on estimating the demand for new housing development (ZAP) and spatial-demographic balances, which, in master plans, are a determinant of the area’s possibilities for spatial development in the borough. In addition to ZAP, the work included an overview of related demographic, housing and construction market dynamics. The study aimed to assess the impact of the expected results from the balance sheets on the improvement of spatial structures within boroughs as part of the ongoing reform of spatial planning. The result of the research shows that the introduced balancing model based on a uniform ZAP estimation algorithm for all local governments can hardly be considered an optimal solution. It is based on the concept of duplicating the results of urbanization of the last 20 years, which limits the development opportunities of most cities and, contrary to the intentions of the legislator, disproportionately promotes boroughs in suburbanization areas. In addition, the construction of the regulations is so incomplete that most municipalities outside of urban functional areas will receive an individual, uniform, flat-rate calculation – independent of the ZAP precomputing. A comparison of the results of the research subgroups raises uncertainty when it comes to the effects of future master plans, especially from the perspective of the country’s development priorities and the formation of its settlement structure.