Revealing Election Fraud and Benford’s „Law”
PDF (Język Polski)

Keywords

Benford’s „Law”
elections
revealing election fraud

How to Cite

Pierzgalski, M. (2018). Revealing Election Fraud and Benford’s „Law”. Central European Political Studies, (1), 121–139. https://doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2018.1.7

Abstract

Is it possible to identify election fraud by using statistical tools? The authors of several articles published in the last few years, e.g. Roukema (2009), Perrichi and Torres (2011) and Mebane (2013), used a research method which they believe can help in detecting fraud during elections. This article addresses the question of whether the so-called Benford’s „Law,” which was used to verify irregularities during the presidential elections in Iran (2009), among others, is a reliable research tool. Unfortunately, empirical examples indicate that the usefulness of this method is questionable.
https://doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2018.1.7
PDF (Język Polski)

References

Berger A., Hill T. P. (2011), A basic theory of Benford’s Law, „Probability Surveys”, nr 8, s.1–126.

Berger A., Hill T. P. (2011), Benford’s Law strikes back: No simple explanation in sight for mathematical gem, „The Mathematical Intelligencer”, nr 33(1), s. 85–91.

Breunig C., Goerres A. (2011), Searching for electoral irregularities in an established democracy: Applying Benford’s Law tests to Bundestag elections in Unified Germany, „Electoral Studies”, nr 30(3), s. 534–545.

Brock T. (2014), Benford’s law and elections – part 2, https://datatodisplay.com/blog/politics/benfords-law-elections-2

Deckert J., Myagkov M., Ordeshook P. C. (2011), Benford’s Law and the detection of election fraud, „Political Analysis”, nr 19(3), s. 245–268.

Fewster R. (2009), A Simple Explanation of Benford’s Law, „American Statistician”, nr 63(1), s.20–25.

Gawron P., Pawela Ł., Puchała Z., Szklarski J., Życzkowski K. (2015) Wybory samorządowe 2014 w poszukiwaniu anomalii statystycznych, „Studia wyborcze”, nr 30(3), s. 534–545.

Gelman A. (2009) Unconvincing (to me) Use of Benford’s Law to Demonstrate Election Fraud in Iran, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/unconvincing-to-me-use-of-benfords-law/.

Geyer C. L., Williamson P. P. (2004), Detecting fraud in data sets using Benford’s Law, „Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation”, nr 33(1), s. 229–246.

Mebane W. R. (2011), Comment on „Benford’s Law and the detection of election fraud”, „Political Analysis”, nr 19(3), s. 269–272.

Mebane W. R. (2006), September, Election forensics: the second-digit Benford’s law test and recent American presidential elections, Election Fraud Conference.

Pericchi L., Torres D. (2011), Quick Anomaly Detection by the Newcomb-Benford Law, with Applications to Electoral Processes Data from the USA, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, „Statistical Science”, nr 26(4), s. 502–516.

Roukema B. F. (2009), Benford’s Law anomalies in the 2009 Iranian presidential election, „Journal of Applied Statistics”, nr 41(1), s.164–199.

Tam Cho W. K., Gaines B. J. (2007), Breaking the (Benford) law: Statistical fraud detection in campaign finance, „The American Statistician”, nr 61(3), s. 218–223.

Źródła danych:

PKW, http://pkw.gov.pl/.

Australian Electoral Commission, http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HouseResultsMenu-17496.htm.