Adaptation of the technology foresight algorithm in industrial R&D units

Abstract

The dynamic increase in the importance of competitiveness and innovativeness associated with high technologies and the resulting need for strategic planning at the country, region and organisation level drives world economies to take efforts to predict changes and development trends, particularly in the medium and long term. Foresight techniques are an effective tool to achieve this goal. For foresight to be implemented effectively, an individualised approach is needed each time, taking account of the singularities of the country, organisation or subject-matter. The authors of this paper analyse the specific social and economic background of foresight projects in Poland, paying particular attention to negative influences on the implementation and outputs of foresight projects, such as: insufficient networking between business, science, policy and the public, low private sector’s involvement in R&D efforts, reliance on technology transfer and diffusion rather than on developing core technologies, and the bureaucratisation of the administration system. Against this background the article proposes an algorithm of proceeding during foresight projects at R&D units that strive to achieve sustainable growth. Particular attention is given to two essential elements which determine the effectiveness of a foresight exercise: selection of methodologies and experts. The authors use the proposed foresight algorithm to identify key research directions in nanotechnology in Poland. They opt for the technologies method as the main method in this exercise. The following additional expert methods were adopted: environment scanning, SWOT analysis, reference tree, supplemented with results of statistical surveys. As a result, the authors identified directions which are currently being followed in leading economies: ones where Poland has already made significant achievements. They also pointed out to areas which are new for Poland but there is potential for the country to make an important contribution on the European scale within a relatively short time.