Słowa kluczowe
fertility
augumented synthetic control method
JEL: I18, J13, J18
Jak cytować
Liczba wyświetleń: 132
Liczba pobrań: 309
Abstrakt
Low fertility constitutes a major demographic and economic challenge, leading to population ageing, labour shortages, and increasing pressure on social security systems. One of the factors that may influence reproductive decisions is the restrictiveness of abortion laws. The primary aim of this study is to assess whether, and to what extent, the tightening of abortion law in Poland in 2020 affected fertility, measured by the total fertility rate as well as fertility rates by women’s age group, place of residence, and relationship status. Using the augmented synthetic control method and data from 32 European countries, the study compares Poland’s actual fertility trajectory with a counterfactual scenario assuming no legal change. The results indicate that the 2020 reform contributed to a decline in fertility, particularly among women aged 15–19, married women, and urban residents. This study contributes to the limited empirical literature on the demographic effects of abortion law restrictions in Europe and demonstrates the usefulness of advanced quasiexperimental methods in evaluating the effects of public policies.
Bibliografia
Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(2), 391–425. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20191450
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2), 495–510. Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review, 93(1), 113–132. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455188
Aborcja bez granic. (2023). Nowy raport Aborcji Bez Granic za 2023 rok [New report by Abortion Without Borders for 2023]. Retrieved January 2025, from https://adt.pl/news/organizacjeaborcyjne/aborcja-bez-granic-raport-2023/
Ananat, E. O., Gruber, J., Levine, P. B., & Staiger, D. (2009). Abortion and selection. Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(1), 124–136. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.1.124
Angrist, J. D., & Evans, W. N. (1996). Schooling and labor market consequences of the 1970 state abortion reforms (NBER Working Paper No. 5406). National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w5406
Antón, J. I., Ferre, Z., & Triunfo, P. (2016). Evolution of adolescent fertility after decriminalization of abortion in Montevideo, Uruguay. International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics, 134(S1), S24–S27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijgo.2016.06.002
Antón, J. I., Ferre, Z., & Triunfo, P. (2018). The impact of the legalisation of abortion on birth outcomes in Uruguay. Health Economics (United Kingdom), 27(7), 1103–1119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3659
Bell, S. O., Franks, A. M., Arbour, D., Anjur-Dietrich, S., Stuart, E. A., Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., & Gemmill, A. (2025). US abortion bans and fertility. JAMA, 333(15), 1324–1332. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.28527
Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., & Rothstein, J. (2021). The augmented synthetic control method. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116(536), 1789–1803. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1929245
Central Statistical Office (Poland). (2025). Rozwój i zmiany w strukturze ludności w latach 1950–2024 [Population Development and Structural Changes, 1950–2024]. https://stat.gov.pl/download/gfx/portalinformacyjny/pl/defaultaktualnosci/5468/16/1/1/tablica_3.xls
Clarke, D., & Mühlrad, H. (2021). Abortion laws and women’s health. Journal of Health Economics, 76, 102413. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102413
Dench, D., Pineda-Torres, M., & Myers, C. (2024). The effects of post-Dobbs abortion bans on fertility. Journal of Public Economics, 234(February), 105124. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105124
Donohue, J. J., & Levitt, S. (2020). The impact of legalized abortion on crime over the last two decades. American Law and Economics Review, 22(2), 241–302. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/aler/ahaa008
Eurostat. (2025a). Fertility indicators. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_find/default/table?lang=en&category=demo.demo_fer
Eurostat. (2025b). Eurostat data browser. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/explore/all/all_themes
Farin, S. M., Hoehn-velasco, L., & Pesko, M. F. (2024). The impact of legal abortion on maternal mortality. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 16(3), 174–216. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20220208
Fernández, J. J., & Juif, D. (2023). Does abortion liberalisation accelerate fertility decline? A worldwide time-series analysis. European Journal of Population, 39(1), 1–24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09687-y
Fischer, S., Royer, H., & White, C. (2018). The impacts of reduced access to abortion and family planning services on abortions, births, and contraceptive purchases. Journal of Public Economics, 167, 43–68. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.08.009
François, A., Magni-Berton, R., & Weill, L. (2014). Abortion and crime: Cross-country evidence from Europe. International Review of Law and Economics, 40, 24–35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irle.2014.08.001
Gruber, J., Levine, P., & Staiger, D. (1999). Abortion legalization and child living circumstances: Who is the “marginal child”? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 263–291. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556007
Hajdu, G., & Hajdu, T. (2021). The long-term impact of restricted access to abortion on children’s socioeconomic outcomes. PLoS ONE, 16, 21–27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248638
Jones, K. M., & Pineda-Torres, M. (2024). TRAP’d Teens: Impacts of abortion provider regulations on fertility & education. Journal of Public Economics, 234(April), 105112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105112
Kalist, D. E. (2004). Abortion and female labor force participation: Evidence prior to Roe v. Wade. Journal of Labor Research, 25(3), 503–514. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-004-1028-3
Klerman, J. A. (1999). U.S. abortion policy and fertility. American Economic Review, 89(2), 261–264. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.2.261
Levine, P. B., Staiger, D., Kane, T. J., & Zimmerman, D. J. (1999). Roe v. Wade and American fertility. American Journal of Public Health, 89(2), 199–203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.89.2.199
Levine, P. B., & Staiger, D. (2004). Abortion policy and fertility outcomes: The Eastern European experience. Journal of Law and Economics, 47(1), 223–243. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/380475
Lindo, J. M., Myers, C. K., Schlosser, A., & Cunningham, S. (2020). Age-restricted access to abortion and the birth control pill and minors’ fertility. Journal of Human Resources, 55(4), 1137–1160. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.55.4.1217-9254R3
Miller, S., Wherry, L. R., & Greene Foster, D. (2023). The Economic consequences of being denied an abortion. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15a(1), 394–437. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210159
Mitrut, A., & Wolff, F. C. (2011). The impact of legalized abortion on child health outcomes and abandonment. Evidence from Romania. Journal of Health Economics, 30(6), 1219–1231. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2011.08.004
Mølland, E. (2016). Benefits from delay? The effect of abortion availability on young women and their children. Labour Economics, 43, 6–28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2016.06.011
Mukhopadhyay, S., & Katsikas, A. (2024). Abortion policy, politics, and mental health: Evidence from the Dobbs decision. Review of Economics of the Household, 22, 1551–1578. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-024-09711-y
Our World in Data. (2025). Our World in Data. Retrieved January 2025, from https://ourworldindata.org/
Ozbeklik, S. (2014). The effect of abortion legalization on childbearing by unwed teenagers in future cohorts. Economic Inquiry, 52(1), 100–115. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12017
Pop-Eleches, C. (2006). The impact of an abortion ban on socioeconomic outcomes of children: Evidence from Romania. Journal of Political Economy, 114(4), 744–773. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/506336
Pop-Eleches, C. (2010). The impact of an abortion ban on socioeconomic outcomes: Evidence from Romania. Journal of Political Economy, 118(4), 681–720.
The Center for Reproductive Rights. (2023). European abortion laws: A comparative overview (2023 report). Retrieved January 2025, from https://reproductiverights.org/europeanabortion-laws-comparative-overview-2023-report/
World Bank. (2025). Fertility rate, total (births per woman). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
Licencja
Prawa autorskie (c) 2026 WPiA UAM
Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa 4.0 Międzynarodowe.