Forecast of changes in the structure of the main ecosystem types resulting from the expansion of residential areas – the example of the rural commune of Łubowo (Wielkopolskie Voivodeship)

Abstract

Spatial development processes are one of the main drivers of ecosystem transformation in Europe’s rural areas. In this article, we forecast changes in the structure of the main types of ecosystems resulting from the expansion of residential areas. We base on a case study covering the rural commune of Łubowo. The commune is typically agricultural, but its favourable location between the cities of Poznań and Gniezno causes an increase in interest in its area as a place of residence. As part of the research, we determined the current structure of the main types of ecosystems and the extent of residential areas. Then we made forecasts of future changes based on planned spatial development directions. The results of the research showed that if the assumptions of the commune’s spatial policy are fully implemented, the area of residential areas will increase 5.5 times compared to 2022. Mainly agricultural ecosystems will be allocated for residential development; as a result, the agriculture area will decrease by about 20%. Expected transformation requires sensitivity in natural capital management. Potential adverse effects of development expansion are related, in particular, to the reduction of valuable habitats, landscape fragmentation, and increased air, water and soil pollution. However, urbanization processes do not necessarily mean degrading the environmental values of rural areas. We recommend actions aimed at preserving, in the long term, the ability of ecosystems to provide a wide range of ecological, social and economic benefits in rural areas under urbanization pressure.