Forecasting skills demand for regional smart specialisations: The example from the Lubelskie region

Abstract

The article proposes a methodological approach for developing qualitative regional skills forecasts to support the implementation of regional innovation strategies within the RIS3 framework. Subsequently, the research identifies priority transversal and occupational skills for the five smart specialisations of the Lubelskie Region: high-quality food, green economy, healthy society, digital society, and material technologies, production processes and logistics. The forecasts are based on 60 in-depth interviews with enterprise representatives and a three-round online Delphi survey involving 40 experts on the regional labour market. Skills were evaluated using an importance–change matrix, assessing current relevance and the projected trend of change until 2035, enabling the identification of key priorities for public support. The results confirmed that four transversal skills: adaptability, digital skills, creativity and innovation, and critical thinking and complex problem-solving, are essential across all innovative activities in the region. It also outlined 10–12 priority occupational skills for each specialization.

The paper calls for a stronger alignment between innovation policy, regional knowledge assets and territorially oriented skills policy. It argues that conducting similar skills-forecasting exercises at the regional level – and subsequently using their results to adjust the educational offer of higher education institutions and vocational training providers – may improve the effectiveness of innovation strategies developed within the RIS3 framework. Strengthening regional skills policy can also enhance regional economic resilience and support the ability to seize growth opportunities arising from the green and digital transitions.