The interdependence of internal migration and changes in GDP in Poland from 2004 to 2023

Abstract

The aim of this article is to examine the interdependence of internal migration with Poland’s development. Three main research questions are posed: (1) Is the change in GDP per capita influenced by the distance of migration, or only by mobility itself (inflow, outflow, net migration, and efficiency)? (2) Is this change in GDP influenced by the functional and settlement characteristics of the source and destination areas of migration? (3) If so, does the chosen analysis period matter, and in particular, does the pandemic period distort the significance of the correlation? Development indicators related to GDP per capita (initial state, final state, change) and to migration (inflow, outflow, net migration, turnover, efficiency, inflow labor, outflow labor) were used. Two periods were examined (2004–2019 and 2004–2023), along with the distribution of migration flows to and from subregions according to five categories of cities and municipalities. The answer to all the questions posed is affirmative. A positive statistical correlation was demonstrated between the initial and final levels of GDP and inflows, and a negative correlation with outflows, which was significantly stronger in the 2004–2019 period. Thus, it was demonstrated that in the analysis of GDP and migration, it is important to carefully and justifiably select the initial and final dates of the study, including the separate treatment of the period associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The role of distance was confirmed, i.e., stronger positive and negative correlations between inflows and outflows and the level and pace of development. Furthermore, the significant role of outflow from medium-sized cities to subregions with high and faster-growing GDP was identified.