Forward and backward shifting of value added tax in the book market in Poland

Abstract

The main objective of the article is to answer the question of who (in the short term) bore the value added tax imposed on books. The research was carried out on empirical data relating to the book market in Poland in 2003-2012. An increase in the tax rate on books from 0% to 5% resulted in a more than proportional increase in their prices, which indicates a tax overshifting on consumers. The increase in the prices of books led to a decrease in the number of books sold, which resulted in lower profitability of book publishers. A statistically significant decrease in a rate of return on equity of book publishers in 2011 compared to 2010, as a result of a decrease in revenue, leads to the conclusion that the burden of the higher tax rate was born by the owners of publishing houses. Despite the observed decline in the level of wages, both in nominal and real terms, it is not considered statistically significant. Although it is not possible to conclude that the tax burden was borne by employees of book publishers, such possibility cannot be excluded.

The change of the tax rate on books resulted in changes both in prices and the number of books sold. The analysis of the consequences of an imposition (a change) of a tax should not be limited to changes in prices but should also take into account the number of goods and services purchased and sold. This is because the market equilibrium is influenced by both, the price and the quantity.