Abstrakt
Przedmiotem artykułu są pokomunistyczne przemiany ustrojowe rozpatrywane w perspektywie politologii i ekonomii politycznej konstytucjonalizmu. Pierwsza część dotyczy występujących w literaturze założeń teoretycznych oraz hipotez empirycznych. Nacisk położono na wybór typu rządów, rodzaju ordynacji wyborczej i organizacji pionowej państwa. Część druga proponuje model teoretyczny służący wyjaśnieniu dróg przemian ustrojowych i ich skutków. Zawiera on czynniki wewnętrzne i zewnętrzne. Wśród pierwszych główną rolę odgrywa stopień zdominowania społeczeństwa przez komunistyczne monopaństwo: im jest większy, tym wyższe prawdopodobieństwo ustroju autorytarnego. Czynnik zewnętrzny to położenie kraju w stosunku do Zachodu (Bruksela) lub Wschodu (Moskwa): bliskość Moskwy podnosi prawdopodobieństwo opcji autorytarnej. Analiza strategii przemian ustrojowych skupia się na wyborze typu rządów oraz ordynacji wyborczej. Efekty transformacji mierzone są za pomocą zagregowanego indeksu ustroju politycznego. Uzyskane rezultaty odbiegają od przewidywanych na podstawie teorii przedstawionej w pierwszej części artykułu.
JEL: A10; A12; B25; P10; P20; P21; P30
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